Sunday, February 13, 2011

False Spring or the Real Deal?

2 PM Monday Update... Remember my BOLD prediction about 10 days ago calling for 70 degrees in Little Rock this week?  It just happened.  How about that for long range forecasting?

2011 is the 8th Snowiest Year on Record in Little Rock
I hope you have had the chance to enjoy this fantastic weather.  The massive warm up we talked about more than a week ago is definitely here!  When you're acclimated to 30 degrees, 60 feels like 70 degrees.

So is this it?  Is this wild winter finished?  Or will we add to the snow this year which now makes it the 8th snowiest on record?

We are in a La Nina pattern (Whenever I type Nina, I always type Ninja then have to correct it. LOL), the last typical La Nina occurred during the winter of 2007-2008.  This winter was marked by an early and active severe weather season which is something I have talked about here since last summer.  While this hasn't happened yet and we hope it doesn't, I think we must keep that in mind as we go into the end of the month and into March.  You may also remember 2 huge snows on March 4th and March 7th of 2008.  The March 4th snow brought heavy accumulations to Pope county with 12 inches.  The March 7th snow brought 2-3 inches in central Arkansas with 6-10'' across southern and eastern portions of the state.  I'm not saying that will happen, but I wanted to show you what's possible as we head into the tail end of winter.

No matter what the pattern: El Nino, La Nina, La Ninja, or La Nothing, the transition from winter to spring is typically wild with major temperature swings and extreme weather.  The break we are getting now is nice, but will not last.  After this week, I expect a cooler pattern to evolve, but not cold.  Rain chances will begin to increase as a front should get hung up in the region with waves of rain.  A southwesterly flow aloft is not conducive to pushing fronts in and out.  With a huge trough developing in the western United States, this type of pattern brings unsettled weather into the state.   I also see large amounts of arctic air building into Canada again.  At the same time, a broad ridge of high pressure across the Gulf into the Atlantic will promote a clash between the seasons in the middle.  This is why our weather will get active in the weeks to come.

9 comments:

Eric said...

Good post todd. Hope no one out in blogger land thanks we have turned the corner and spring is here from here on out. This is not the case. Maybe for a litttle while but a couple more weeks winter and winter weather will be back in the state.

Snowbird Bob said...

I say False Spring, But as we head into the last week into Feb. & the 1st week onto March, Here comes the Arctic Train once again to make another visit to Arkansas, Could it bring more Winter Storms, Its absolutely possible,I do think after this period, We want have to go thru any more extreme cold periods, but could have to watch out for March Snows & Severe weather..The warm up we are currently in now has come early enough to let the Arctic build very cold air once again & the jet is still strong enough to deliver the blows.The latest run of the GFS is hinting at this poss Cold & Wintry outbreak in about 13-15 Days, As we head into about 200-240 hours more computer models will get a better handle on this...So enjoy the spring temps & clear, sunny weather, because there could be 1-2 more Ark weather lives before we say goodbye to the winter season... We Shall See...

Jason H said...

1st week of March will bring a Tornado Watch to the southern half of the state while the Northern half is under a Blizzard Warning all in the same day....Sweet dreams are made of these.....

Anonymous said...

Your tellin me we are in a pattern change was lookin at chicago illinois forecast just for kicks all this week there expecting rain showers highs near 60 most of the week lows in 40s. Thought it was funny this morning was listening to a local radio personality in little rock they commented he said spring is here an no more winter in his opinion. I think we couldnt be more wrong i think snowbird hit the nail on the mark in his blog post.

Aleigh said...

I do remember a snow on or around March 4, 1990.

Aleigh said...

Actually that may be March 4, 1989 that we had snow. Old age lol.

Anonymous said...

I want some more winter! LOVE THE COLD! Bring on SNOW! YAY! Didn't get enough here yet in De Witt! WOO!

Anonymous said...

I don't like it that you were left out of the new KATV Weather promotion spot, with Melinda, Barry and Ned out in the snow!! What are they thinking?? Through this blog alone, you ARE weather at KATV! Shame on them!!

Anonymous said...

I certainly understand why you're upset with me for leaving Todd out of the promo. He is a critical member of the KATV weather team. And a great guy, too.

I had no choice. He wasn't here at the station when the snow was falling and I had to shoot in the snow to get that look. I definitely wanted to use him... but he was too busy at home with the blog and, because I had no help that day and the roads were terrible, I couldn't get out there to him.

I can tell you this, though, Todd has gotten more promotion than all the other KATV meteorologists combined with that "weather geek" spot I did a few months ago. It has run thousands of times.

Rob Thomas
KATV Promotions Manager