Friday, February 25, 2011

Sunday Night Severe Threat

12:45 PM Saturday Update... Most of the state has been upgraded to a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms late Sunday into early Monday morning.  The main threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds.  The possibility for isolated tornadoes will exist.  I will have a new post later dealing with the situation.

Thanks again to S. Todd Miller for those incredible pictures of lightning hitting the state capitol. You can see those pics and video in the blog post below.

From record snow and low temperatures earlier in the month to severe weather and tornadoes.  How's that for Arkansas Weather?  There's nothing normal with it ever!

A similar set up will occur late Sunday with another round of strong to severe thunderstorms.  I expect a line to begin to organize Sunday evening and it should push through the state while your TRYING to sleep Sunday night and Monday morning.  I have a feeling there will be a ton of people awakened Sunday night by strong winds and thunder.  The main threat will be damaging winds and some hail.  A tornado can't be ruled out, especially if any storms can organize in front of the main line.  The time of day this is coming through will hopefully keep the severity levels in check, but I still expect severe weather.  If this were coming through during the peak heating of the day, I would have even more concern.  Nevertheless, everyone should sign up for WeatherCall 7.  Your phone will ring in the middle of the night IF you are in the direct path of an incoming severe storm or tornado.

Here is the simulated radar pics from the overnight run of the NAM model showing the line of storms Sunday night moving rapidly across the state.  Keep checking back here this weekend for any changes and updates to this situation.

NAM model valid midnight Monday AM.  The line moving into western and northwestern AR.
The NAM valid at 3 AM Monday morning shows the line moving through central Arkansas
By 6 AM, the NAM indicates the line should be crossing the Mississippi River with cooler and stable air moving into the state.
SPC issues a slight risk for severe weather for all of Arkansas late Sunday into Monday morning


Vonavie said...

Just think... It would be so boring to be a weather guy in Southern California.

Marine layer in the morning, beach weather by 1pm. Repeat daily.

We appreciate how hard our Arkansas weather guys work. And how much stress these crazy models put them through!

Anonymous said...

What is anticipated as far as rainfall amounts for Sunday's system? According to the NWS, "less than 1/10 of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms". I think that means anywhere from nothing to 5 inches! Does anyone have a better feel or is this just the nature of the beast? NWS reports 3.32 at Greers Ferry Dam yesterday. I believe it! I live about 2 miles from the dam and my basement flooded for the first time in three years....Does this system have the potential for heavy rain?

Susan in Heber....

Kaleb Turner said...

Hello WX Friends of Arkansas (and Louisiana!), I believe that the system Sunday Night and Monday morning could be more intense than the Thursday system.

The SPC has already issued a SLIGHT chance for severe weather for the whole state as of yesterday (Thursday). While on the Thursday system they didn't issue it until one to two days before the actual system.

Also, the projected high for Sunday is 74 and it has been increasing in the previous days. While on the Thursday system, The high was about 69 to 70 (depending on your location). And throughout the day Thursday it was fairly cool. I have a feeling it will be quite warm throughout the day on Sunday.

Lastly, the storm Thursday produced 3 small tornadoes (correct me if I'm wrong). It also produced heavy rains and storm straight line winds up to 70 mph. So if you factor in all the components listed above, it seems to be a more powerful, warm, and higher risk for more severe weather.
*BTW- Correct me if I'm wrong on any of the Thursday storm facts!*

Thanks and keep safe, Kaleb Turner

Anonymous said...

kaleb your wrong sundays system will be less severe then thur system. the ingredients are just not all there

nlrweatherman said...

Actually kaleb I agree that the ingredients are all there and a pretty good widespread severe weather outbreak will occur. The only thing working against it is timing.

Anonymous said...

to anonymous who said kaleb is wrong - NWS in Little Rock said even with the event coming through at night there is the potential that this could be a significant event

Anonymous said...

I also believe that Sunday's system will be very strong. It does concern me that it is coming at night. Everyone should keep their heads up and make sure to keep in touch with the latest weather. Be safe everyone.


Anonymous said...

This Sunday's system look kind of strong. Hope it doesn't get too bad. I am thankful for all the storm chasers and our NWS who keeps us in the know. I also think channel 7 for their weather coverage. Everyone keep their heads up and be safe.

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