Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Thursday Thunder Part 2

To read and comment on proposed NWS budget cuts, scroll down towards the bottom of the page.

I'll have more on the severe weather threat Thursday AM.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the moderate risk for severe weather further west and south to include a good chunk of Arkansas.  So what does a moderate risk mean?  The risk is in the day two time frame and according to the SPC, that means there's a 45% of seeing a combined threat for hail, high winds, and tornadoes.
Courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center
Risk for severe weather Thursday
The instability (CAPE) is not all that significant.  However, if clouds break up, especially across southern, central, and eastern Arkansas, more fuel could be added to the fire.  There will be plenty of spin (helicity) to cause storms to rotate.  In other words, this is a low instability/high shear situation.  The last time we had this was December 31st, 2010 when the twister hit Cincinnati, AR.  I'm NOT saying that is going to happen.  Some of you may remember the models weren't showing much in the way of instability, but when Springfield launched their morning sounding, there was some present.  Another case was on October 29th, 2009.  It turned out to be an eventful severe weather day.  There are times when these situations bring quite a bit of severe weather and other times it doesn't due to the lack of instability.

I am especially concerned for southern and eastern Arkansas and anywhere else that can break out into sunshine which could add fuel to the fire.  If this occurs in the warm sector, instability levels will go higher and more severe thunderstorms can be expected.  The time frame is late afternoon and early evening.

12Z NAM shows areas of strong spin across central, eastern, and southern Arkansas.  If you look closely, you also see an area of high CAPE in southeastern Arkansas reaching close to 1000 j/kg.  This map is valid at 6 PM Thursday.
This is from the 12Z NAM and is valid at 9 PM Thursday.  It shows CAPE values around 500-100 across the southern half of the state.


Anonymous said...

Er. With respect to Senator Boozman that wasn't exactly a response I'd be looking for. It seems more like the Republican party mantra these days. I'd like to know an in depth opinion on the matter at hand.

Will said...

What else would you expect him to say, he's a politician. IMO......The NWS is an out of date resource that doesn't provide any exceptional service that local media weather resources can provide without using tax payer dollars. Everyone on this blog is always saying what a great job Todd does so why do we need the NWS? Waste, waste, waste.......Just another example of how your government continues to spend money on things that are not the government's responsibility. ENOUGH WITH POLITICS.....PLEASE KEEP THIS BLOG ABOUT ACTUAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS AND NOT POLITICS AND ECONOMICS as I'm sure that there are any number of blogs that would love to hear your thoughts.

Anonymous said...

I am thinking afternoon communte nightmare in Central Arkansas.

Todd Yakoubian said...

Will, there is no way any single person could do the job of the NWS. They do far more than make forecasts and issue warnings.

Sorry you feel this blog is not the right place to talk about the proposed cuts. I would never do anything with politics on this blog unless it had everything to do with the weather.

Anonymous said...

I am also disappointed in the budget cuts for the NWS. I feel they are extremely vital for Arkansas. I too am tired though of having a weather blog turned into a political arena but I know why. It is all about making Todd look good in the publics eye and his ratings go up. The more we all respond the more hits he gets on the blog and channel 7 will let him keep it. I really have enjoyed this blog and what it has offered as far as the weather goes. This however is getting ridiculous. We have a possible severe weather threat tomorrow and what are we talking about? Budget cuts. Like I said I am very concerned about the budget cuts and I really hope that something else can get worked out but enough of this political ranting and pumping Todd's ego and his ratings and back to the real deal, WEATHER!

Amy said...

My husband and I are supposted to drive to Texarkana tomorrow evenintg for an event. Could one of you guys give me your "geekxpert" opinion on the track and timing of the severe outbreak tomorrow. Im thinking we might ought to change our plans. We will be leaving LR around 4. I miss Winter!!!! Any chance she might make one more 2011 appearance? ?

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