Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Another Round of Rain and Rumblers

We need the rain, but not the severe weather.  The "extreme" drought has expanded to include the southern 1/3 of Arkansas.

Multiple waves of low pressure continue to move through the flow with periods of rain and thunderstorms.  One is moving through northern Arkansas this morning and another more significant wave will move through this afternoon and evening.  We could have another one Thursday.

While beneficial rain is likely, hail will be a possibility once again in the strongest cells.  If you have severe weather pictures, send them to photo@katv.com

The graphics below are from the high resolution WRF model showing simulated radar for the stronger wave this afternoon.  This model usually does a good job, but isn't perfect.  We'll see how radar looks today and compare it to this one particular model.

At 3 PM showers are developing across eastern Oklahoma into western and southern Arkansas.
By 5PM, rain is moving through the western half of the state.  The WRF shows storms (red) in western areas moving into central portions of the state.  Some of these could contain hail.

By 6PM, storms and rain are covering up a large chunk of the state with the heaviest cells from the 67/167 corridor into central Arkansas down interstate 30.
By 7 PM, the showers continue with the heaviest activity across eastern and southern Arkansas
By 10PM, the system is exiting with rain and storms across the south.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Todd,

Please tell me this is our blackberry winter. I don't like severe weather. I know we need the rain. However, do we have to have upper 40s and low 50s for highs in late March/early April?

nlrweatherman said...

Anyone seen the severe weather potential for Monday? Impressive setup?