Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Mother Nature Gives Us The Cold Shoulder

I think many of us will be thinking, "I thought winter was over?".  The pattern is just about to become quite active again and WE NEED THE RAIN!  I mowed (yearly scalping of the lawn) Tuesday afternoon and couldn't believe the dust that was kicked up.

The front coming through today is lacking significant moisture to produce rain and storms so it will come through mostly dry.  This is what I was fearing last weekend when I put in 20% chances in the forecast.  Winds will also be a factor and the wildfire danger continues to be elevated.

Cooler air comes in Thursday behind the front.  I really want to key in on the forecast for Sunday night into Monday  morning.  This is why I gave the title of the post "Mother Nature Gives Us A Cold Shoulder".  It looks like a strong storm system will move our direction.  Most of the models show a southerly track to the system which would bring a very cold rain to the state.  Any northward adjustment and we'll have to start talking about severe weather chances, but at this time, the probability is higher of only a cold rain and a few rumbles of thunder.  Last Monday's run of the GEM even indicated snow across northern Arkansas and it's not out of the question for a few flakes to fly there as the system departs.

My point? Get ready for a typical springtime wild ride as temperatures will be all over the place for awhile.  We'll be going from heaters to the A/C to heaters again and shorts to jeans back to shorts.  I guess another appropriate title for this post, "Mother Nature Has Mood Swings."

I'll keep everyone updated and I have a feeling the blog will be getting hot while the weather gets cold.

Here are a couple maps below.

This is yesterday's AM run of the Euro showing a surface low across northern Texas next Monday (March 28th).  High pressure located across the Great Lakes would funnel in a easterly flow here at the surface.  This is a recipe for a cold and miserable rain, but it would at least put a small dent in the drought.  Any severe weather with this would be well south of the state.
This is the overnight run of the GFS for the same time, next Monday.  The surface low is further to the north, but not by too much.  This too is a miserable, cold rain for much of Oklahoma into Arkansas with SNOW further to the north.
This is HPC's rainfall forecast for Sunday into early Monday morning.  This does not take into account the entire system Monday, only some of it.  It does show rainfall though of .5'' or slightly more!

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