|Preliminary number so far|
As we thought last week, flooding would become a major, major concern. As of Tuesday evening, the White River at Des Arc and Georgetown are forecast to crest above record stage. At Des Arc, the record is 37.35 feet on Feb 2nd 1949. The forecast is 37.5 feet. At Georgetown the record is 32.8 feet on Feb. 1st, 1949. The forecast is 34.5 feet. There may also be records challenged along the Mississippi River.
The flooding and tornadoes are completely expected given the pattern. La Nina typically brings an early and significant severe weather season and we're experiencing it right now. The last time it happened was 2008. You may remember we ended that year with more than 80 tornadoes plus a round of very serious flooding in March.
So are we done yet? I'm afraid not. I'm calling it a spring pattern on steroids and I don't think it will settle down for a few more weeks. While there is no guarantee, I'm very confident there will be more severe weather as we go through May. There are already signs next week the pattern will get active, but nailing down specifics is useless this far out. In May of 2008 we had the Stuttgart tornado on the 10th and then it settled down. Hopefully it will settle down soon this year. I have never hoped for the hot, humid, and dry days of summer more than I have this spring.
Everyone stay safe and I'll keep you updated here, on twitter, and my new facebook fan page. Yes, I started it last Friday so enjoy!