Monday, June 20, 2011

Summer Starts Severe?

7:45 PM Monday Update... Here's a loop of one hi res model I like to look at.  It's picking up on the big storms out west.  They march to the east and decrease overnight.  There will still be the possibility for some severe weather tonight, especially across northwest and western Arkansas.  Let's see how well the model handles the convection!

video
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Many of you may have noticed I was not on the air this past weekend.  Towards the end of Saturday Daybreak on the 18th, I started to feel like I had the flu coming on.  I got home and almost passed out.  My temperature soared and I was on my back for the rest of the weekend. I'm better, but not well.  BIG thanks to Ned and Barry for covering for me on short notice.

Before Blake was born, I rarely got sick and if I did, it wasn't the type of sickness that would keep me from working.  I guess I'm exposed to more things now that he has to go to daycare a couple days a week.

Now onto more important things... the weather.  Two interesting things.  After Tuesday, the hours of daylight gets less and less.  You really won't notice it for awhile, but the tilt of the earth will be changing as we head towards winter again.  Yes, only I can celebrate the march towards winter on the first day of summer.   Many of you know I love the cold weather and snow!

Also, you would think as we head into the summer months, organized severe weather becomes rare around here.  This will not be the case as we undergo a significant pattern change.  It's the one we talked about here earlier last week.  While the worst of the severe weather will be to our north, severe thunderstorms with hail and wind will be a definite possibility.  You know, severe thunderstorms happen so often around here that sometimes we don't take them as seriously as we should.  Remember, several of our fellow Arkansans have died this year because of severe thunderstorm winds.  When warnings are issued, please take the necessary precautions.

If you think this year has been an active tornado year, the new statistics from the Storm Prediction Center backs that up.  As of June 12th, the United States has had more tornado reports compared to 2008.  You may remember that year was one of the most active in history and a La Nina year as well.  Check out the charts and maps below.

As of June, 12th, the SPC shows we have more LSR tornadoes than 2008
The hi res WRF model shows a cool front entering the state Tuesday.  It will run into hot and humid air.  This will fuel thunderstorm development along and ahead of the boundary.  Further to the north near the area of low pressure, tornadoes will be possible well north of Arkansas.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire northwest half of the state under a slight risk for severe weather Tuesday.  This does include Little Rock.

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