Wednesday, June 22, 2011

"Would It Hurt For A Little Precipitation?"

7:45 AM Thursday Update... Here's a quick video update with hi res model data showing our rain chances late tonight into Friday morning.

video

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I'm quoting Steve Carell in the 2007 movie "Evan Almighty".  We NEED rain in many places.  Not flooding rain, but a good soaking!

If June ended today in Little Rock...
  1.  It would be the 3rd driest in history
  2. By average high temperature, it would be tied with 1952 for the 2nd hottest in history
  3. By average low temperature, it would be the 3rd warmest
  4. By average temperature, it would be the 2nd hottest
These are not the records we want to break.  I do not think these will stand as they are now once the month is over, especially the record dry stat.

While we do have a front in the area and there will be a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday,  I wanted to focus on something that caught my eye when I looked at the 00Z run of the GFS model.  The ridge of high pressure has been beaten back to the southwestern United States allowing a flow out of the northwest to encompass Arkansas.  This has brought the front into the state.  Also, a few disturbances will ride along this flow and COULD bring a few clusters of thunderstorms in as well.  I want to stress COULD!  It also will not affect everyone.  These clusters can produce strong to severe thunderstorm winds, but it can also bring good rainfall.

While there is no guarantee for rainfall, let's check out these computer models and see how well they do...




GFS late Thursday into Friday morning showing the northwesterly storm track and a cluster of thunderstorms developing over Oklahoma and moving into Arkansas.

Several hours later, the GFS indicates rain and storms moving southeast through portions of Arkansas early Friday morning.

The hot ridge of high pressure begins to build back Saturday, but another cluster of thunderstorms may TRY to sneak into portions of northern Arkansas.

By next Tuesday, the GFS shows the hot ridge of high pressure coming back.  YUCK!  This will decrease our rain chances and increase the temperature!!

2 comments:

jimmylee42 said...

WeatherFanatic-

I hate to say it, but I think we are in such a dry hole it is going to take a tropical storm moving in to our area to break this drought. Like you, I hope we are wrong.

Tboyce1979 said...

:( It just feels like we will never see rain again......I miss rain!