I'll probably get scolded by the WeatherNinja for even posting this because I don't like long range forecasting, but the GFS (Global Forecasting System) has been very consistent with a major tropical system affecting the United States at the end of the month. The GFS has indicated the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico and hit the southern United States coastline.
Stealing the phrase from the great Lee Corso on ESPN, "not so fast my friend". The Canadian and the European indicate a track which would be more of a threat to the east coast of the United States. Remember, if the GFS is correct with the system entering the Gulf, if it tracks far enough to the west with the center going over or just west of Arkansas, we would have to talk about a heavy rain and tornado threat.
Notable long range forecasters at this point are siding more with the east coast threat, but since this is still a couple weeks down the road, things change and we'll watch it.
|The late run Monday of the GFS shows the system hitting the west coast of Florida late this month.|
|The next run of the GFS (06Z) shows the storm hitting the coast of MS, AL, and FL late this month.|
|The next run (12Z GFS) shows the center coming up into Arkansas.|
|The Canadian model indicates the system will re-curve and threaten the U.S. east coast around August 25th or 26th.|
|The 00Z run of the Euro only goes out 10 days, but shows the system still southeast of the United States. This would probably end up re-curving and becoming an east coast threat.|