Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tropical Troubles?

Yes, it's that time of year we watch the tropics and it has been a very active season so far.  While nothing has hit the United States, there have been plenty of storms in the open Atlantic.

I'll probably get scolded by the WeatherNinja for even posting this because I  don't like long range forecasting, but the GFS (Global Forecasting System) has been very consistent with a major tropical system affecting the United States at the end of the month.  The GFS has indicated the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico and hit the southern United States coastline. 

Stealing the phrase from the great Lee Corso on ESPN, "not so fast my friend".  The Canadian and the European indicate a track which would be more of a threat to the east coast of the United States.  Remember, if the GFS is correct with the system entering the Gulf, if it tracks far enough to the west with the center going over or just west of Arkansas, we would have to talk about a heavy rain and tornado threat.

Notable long range forecasters at this point are siding more with the east coast threat, but since this is still a couple weeks down the road, things change and we'll watch it.

The late run Monday of the GFS shows the system hitting the west coast of Florida late this month.
The next run of the GFS (06Z) shows the storm hitting the coast of MS, AL, and FL late this month.
The next run (12Z GFS) shows the center coming up into Arkansas.
The Canadian model indicates the system will re-curve and threaten the U.S. east coast around August 25th or 26th.
The 00Z run of the Euro only goes out 10 days, but shows the system still southeast of the United States.  This would probably end up re-curving and becoming an east coast threat.

5 comments:

Snowbird Bob said...

Hello Everyone, All I am saying is dont count the GFS out with this possible Tropical Trouble in the Gulf in the Long-Range..The GFS has done a GREAT!! JOB!! Over the past 8 months..Another thing to look at is our first real taste of cool weather coming in the first week of Sept. This could all play a part of the possible Tropical Trouble in the Gulf of Mexico also by either forcing the storm away from us or pulling it towards us...Still plenty of time..For things to play out..We Shall See..

Here is something I thought of about the GFS Forecast Model
" Great For Suprises"

Anonymous said...

Whatever the result, we just got a nice, cozy safe room put in our garage. We don't even have to run out into the rain now! ^.^

I still personally hope it heads eastward. :P

Vortmax said...

Oh please, two weeks out?? I don't trust anything past 5 days or so on the models, but I sure hope it does come in and give us some nice rainy weather!

Robert Seidenstricker said...

Any advanced information on tropical storms this time of year is appreciated by rice farmers in Arkansas. The crop this year on our farm is taller than normal, which makes it more suspectible to being blown down (which is termed lodging). The rice may still be harvested, but harvest is much slower, the harvest loss is greater, there can be quality problems with the rice, and equipment repairs are greater. No one is in a good mood in the harvest crew. It has been such a year of extremes we just don't need a hurricane to come up through AR and do a number like it did the year of Katrina. We would like to have you and come visit on the farm to see what we are talking about, and maybe a tractor or combine ride also. The worst scenerio at this time until the rice is harvested is rain followed by wind and rain. The plant cannot support the weight of the grain and rain water, so wind with rain will blow it down.

Jason H said...

DING DING DING.....we have a winner. Looks like the Canadian model did a great job on this one with the GFS doing well just a few days out.