Thursday, October 06, 2011

The Blog and Long Range Forecasting

There's no doubt about it, the weather has been slow.  For a weather enthusiast, I think the right word would be "boring."  After last spring, I now enjoy "boring" weather.  I just wanted to let all of you who visit the blog on a regular basis know, the blog is still active and will pick up soon.  I have been working on a few new things behind the scenes to enhance the blog and you will see them soon.  I'm anticipating an action packed winter/spring and as always, this will be your weather headquarters for information and interaction. 

I'm also getting ready for baby #2.  #2 is on the verge of getting a name.  Andria and I have had a difficult time agreeing on just the right name, but I think we're there.   Of course you will find out when he is born.  I'm also in the process of switching rooms in our house so my office will soon will be in disarray in the transition.  Of course, I take into consideration what "Arkansas Weather Live" will look like as I plan the new office. LOL.

Many of you may have already seen Accuweather's winter forecast.  They are calling for more ice than snow this winter.  While I'm not going to contradict their forecast, I will urge caution to all of you.  I DON'T TRUST LONG RANGE FORECASTS.  The meteorologists who make long range forecasts work very hard and take a lot into consideration when making these long range projections.  However, when you're dealing with forecasting in the long range like this, many curve balls can be thrown.  The overwhelming theme is "la nina" just like last winter.  Those forecasts last year called for warmer and drier conditions and we all know that did not happen.  Instead, we experienced record cold and snow across Arkansas and it was even worse for Oklahoma.  There are more variables involved than a "la nina".  I'm not going to pretend that I'm an expert in long range forecasting, but I think we must pay close attention to another index called the "Arctic Oscillation".  This in its positive and negative phase has huge implications on our weather.  I"ll have more about this down the road.

One thing you can almost always count on with a la nina is an early and active severe weather season.  I expect rounds of severe weather as early as January and likely in February.  Between now and then, don't discount severe weather in late fall into early winter as this time period is typically the secondary severe weather season for our region of the country.  With a La Nina pattern, our primary, spring severe weather season starts early.  Evidence of this was seen in 1999, 2008 and again just this year when we had a round of tornadoes in February.  All La Nina years!


tboyce1979 said...

Todd, Ninja, Clipper, Snowbob, Fanatic and all my other know it all weather friends, when do you expect this "boring" 80 degree no rain pattern to continue? I need some October Clouds and cool rain!!!


Qouted By Todd" pay close attention to another index called the "Arctic Oscillation". This in its positive and negative phase has huge implications on our weather. I"ll have more about this down the road." I to am a BIG beleiver in these signals, Last year was a prime example...But it is alomost impossible to predict 2-4 months know I am one of them, But, I just put what I think may occur..& Let it Ride..If I am wrong..Oh well, If I am right..Well, thats a different will let yall know..:)..& to tboyce1979..I dont see much change in this 80 degree boring weather for a while anyway..Sure we may have a few cool downs for the rest of this month & a few Thunderstorms that come along with some of these fall fronts..But, I did day the Coolest air so far this fall would be in the Oct.13-20 Time-frame..No, I am not ready to throw in the towel just yet, But, Its looking more likely that Oct. could go down as a little above average & dryer than average..But, If want some action, Stay Tuned for Nov. This is where we could see some major change as far as Temps, Severe weather & Yes, maybe some late Nov.suprises..& To Todd, I am sure we all will look forward to the changes to the site & some more explanation on the Arctic Signals..Yes, This site is about to erupt with action..Should be the best season yet..See ya for now..Oh, by the way..Dec.15-31 Major Arctic Outbreak, Along with some Winter Storm suprises??!!


Anonymous said...

I hope we get record cold temperatures this winter just like the last one. And more ice and snow of course.

Jason H said...

Im calling it now, and thank me later.:-) Big rains/thunderstorms 20-23 and COLDEST air of the season 24th-28th. Ill be back to this thread on the 29th to smile about it. ;-)

Jason H said...

You are the man Snowbird....really looking like some COLD air will arrive around the 19-22? First freeze for some?

Jason H said...

Do you see what I see......even colder 26-29 frame?!? ;-)

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