Tuesday, November 15, 2011

MORE Unsettled Weather Down The Road!

It's time to look past the current wet weather and look at the next round of storminess which should arrive late this weekend.  Looking at the latest computer models, it looks very unsettled starting Sunday into Monday and even Tuesday as a front stalls out in our area.  The upper level flow will parallel the front which will not give it a push out of here.  This could be a situation where we have waves of energy produce periods of showers and storms.   Right now, the timing looks like it will hold off until after the big game this Saturday, but it's something to watch carefully.  The models have been absolutely horrible, especially in regards to timing.  The video below explains it all.

Also, check back soon, the winter weather contest will start this week.  You will have a window of a few days to get your entries in.  I'm really excited this year for all the weather geeks!  I have a great prize package!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Looks like their might be a repeat of last year of severe weather from Little Rock to Kansas City the day before thanksgiving.

SnowbirdBob said...

Hello Everyone, Just a few thoughts as we head over the next 2 weeks...I know.I know..Most of you out there are watching the Long-Range Computer Models such as the GFS,Canadian,EURO & etc..& saying..It's looking like "Where & when is the cold coming..Because the long-range models sure isn't showing anything...Well, First off Nov. didnt look like it was going to be cold,Except for the last week or so..There could be a few suprises, & Yes, that is still on the table..Yes, Thanksgiving day looks Cool & Dry as of now, But we have to get thru another heavy rain system first, But, After next week "Watch Out"..The Bitter Cold Air is Building in Alaska & The Yukon..Northwest Territorys..I am talking High Temps today in parts of Alaska -25 to -35 Below Zero, & Lows approaching -40 Below, Yes, This is November..On top of that, Parts of Alaska, Yukon, & Canada has much above normal snowpack..This will continue as we head into December...This is my take on over the next 2 weeks..The GFS & many of the Ensembles are going to produce bad long-range model runs..They cant handle low level dense cold air..This has been going on for years now..Also, The models are having to much troughing in the Western US..As we head over the next couple of weeks the models will get a better handle on this situation..You will notice less troughing in the West & The models picking up the cold air better..Also it looks as if we will be going into a negative Artic Oscillation..We need that for blocking over the poles..That should help send Arctic Airmasses South into the lower 48..So, Here is how I see it playing out..Over the next 2 weeks I look for the first blockbuster Snowstorm coming out of the 4 corners heading up into the central plains,With a major low pressure system..This should help tap & drag some of the Arctic Cold that is building North of here...& Again I will say...Dec. 15-31th we could have a Jail Break Arctic Outbreak that we have not seen in 15 to 20 years..WE SHALL SEE??!!

Bob Read
AKA "Snowbirdbob"

jimmylee42 said...

SnowbirdBob-

Piggybacking on what you have said here. I have been staying with my 6year cycle since forever and 2011-12 and 2013-14 winters fall into the two coldest and snowiest winters of the current 6 year cycle.

The winters of 83-84 and 89-90 had Decembers with incredible Artic outbreaks of cold and temps in central Ark down to 0 and below and highs in the teens. Both of those winters were on the 6th year of my 6 year cycle.

If I were true to my 6 year theory I would have to say that this winter would be more like the winters of 81-82 or 87-88 with the cold outbreaks coming in January with snow and cold. For example, the foot snow in January 88. Both of those winters are on the 4th year of the 6 year cycle as is this winter.

SnowbirdBob said...

Jimmylee42, You could very well be right about that 6 year cycle...I am going with analog year's of Dec. 1989 & Dec. 2000..Dec. 2000 the Cold was sustained longer, But, the Cold in Dec.1989 was stronger...It's going to be something we all will have to wait & see...Based on the Ice Storm Cycle..To me Central & Southern Ark is over due..Hopefully it will remain that way..We all want Snow over Ice! I know I would like to see a Feb. 1899 Arctic Outbreak..But, I am sure that kind of Outbreak is once every 100 years..Wait a second??..It's been 102 years now..So Who know's..lol
"WE SHALL SEE"