Just when you thought Arkansas weather couldn't get any crazier, just wait until you see what some of the computer model guidance says could happen next weekend into the following week. I want to caution you, the purpose of this blog is not to necessarily make a forecast, but to lay out all the possibilities as we approach big weather events.
At this time, it appears a front will enter the state late Friday into early Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by cooler air as a trough of low pressure aloft closes off and spins in the region. Where this upper low locates itself is crucial in our forecasting. One thing is for sure, it will get colder, but will it come with any precipitation? As this massive circulation spins counterclockwise, it will spiral pieces of energy around its periphery like spokes on a tire. If the air is cold enough, it could fall as something frozen. This type of pattern does NOT bring heavy amounts of precipitation whatsoever. It typically brings sprinkles/light showers or even snow flurries. Again, this is not a set up for anything major. I think the bigger story will be the colder air next week.
Take a look at the models below and I'll explain.
|This is the Canadian for the same time period. It basically shows the same thing, but with a different position.|