Winter Throws Its First Punch?

DON'T FORGET TO ENTER THE WINTER WEATHER CONTEST.  ENTRIES MUST BE IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 9 PM

What a crazy week, month, and year in Arkansas weather and I think it's just starting to get busy.  After record rain in Little Rock, winter will throw a punch at Arkansas and areas to the east late this weekend and into the following week.  Getting there could be a little rough Saturday morning as the cold front brings another round of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms.

I just took a look at the latest model runs for next week and they all got my attention, especially the European model.  Like I said in the last blog post, I think the big story will be the colder air, but I wouldn't be surprised to see very light rain showers or flurries over northeastern Arkansas.  This is not a set up where you get anything significant in terms of precipitation since the Gulf of Mexico will be shut down for business.  This upper low will close off with spokes of energy rotating around it.  Where the upper low positions itself is still up for debate and this is important to our forecast.  Areas closer to it will have a greater chance for precipitation.

Right now, the projected high temperatures from the GFS next Sunday and Monday for Little Rock are in the lower 50s.  IF these models verify, it will be colder than that!  Also, we have not had our first official freeze at Little Rock Adams Field and I think this air mass will bring that opportunity. 

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Here are the models...

This is the European valid Monday morning.  This shows the upper low cut off just east of the state.  This will bring a northerly flow to the state with lobes of energy rotating around it counterclockwise.  It would offer a chance for light precipitation for northeastern Arkansas.  The entire state would be cold and breezy!

The GFS shows basically the same thing, but orients the upper low a bit differently.  This is a cold upper pattern with breezy and chilly conditions here at the surface.  This too could bring some light precip closer to the upper low northeast of the state as well as periods of cloud cover

This is the Canadian which is further to the east.  If this verifies, It will still get chilly, but not as much as the other two models above.  This would also limit any precip. chances since the upper low is a bit further to the northeast.