10:20 AM Wednesday Update.... The morning run of the GFS and NAM is in now and they are still in disagreement. Both models slow the system down this weekend. The NAM only goes out to 84 hours, but at that time, it has more of a compact cold core low to our west. This COULD bring precipitation late Saturday into Sunday morning. The GFS has a different look with the wave of energy... opening it up and bringing rain showers to mainly southern Arkansas late Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. It's obvious all the models are having a difficult time pinning down the details. As I always say, don't get your hopes up. The main thing to remember is that at the very least, there's something to watch. I'll keep you updated here, facebook, and twitter.
We have a round of rain coming in Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Then we'll watch the next disturbance for Friday night into Saturday morning. The models are not handling this system well. I'll admit, I'm "wish-casting" a bit here and only choosing the model I like which is the NAM. You must always be aware of these upper air features because they can easily out perform the models. A recent example was the 2'' of snow just a couple weeks ago. The models didn't show much of anything, but the upper air feature managed to bring its own cold air and moisture resulting in widespread snow. I'm NOT saying that's going to happen here, but it's worth watching. There's no arctic air on the playing field which is a big problem, but like I said, these lows bring their own cold air and can squeeze out some precipitation. It's just a matter of where this thing tracks and how strong it is. Regardless of what happens, temperatures will warm well above freezing Saturday and again Christmas Day so there is NO chance for a white Christmas. The time frame to watch is Friday night into Saturday morning. Check out the models below.
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|This is the 500mb chart from the 6Z NAM valid early Saturday morning. Do you see that big area of orange in eastern Oklahoma? That's the vigorous upper air feature I'm watching carefully.|
|The NAM is showing some precipitation across western Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma. The blue line to the north is the 32 degree line. So temperatures here could be slightly ABOVE freezing. Another problem if you want snow!|