Thursday, December 01, 2011

More Very Unsettled Weather Ahead

Welcome to meteorological winter!  Today also kicks off our winter weather contest.  Good luck to all those who entered!  You can follow it by clicking on "winter contest" in the navigation bar above.

Looks like another big weather maker will be heading into Arkansas this weekend.  As we go into next week, the models are not in agreement as to what will happen.  I discuss this in the video below.

Here's the latest HPC chart indicating the potential for several inches of rain across the southeastern half of the state.

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AND ON TWITTER @katv_weather

HPC 5 day rainfall potential

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks todd for the video update and showing us the models. I. Enjoy watching them and seeing what the thinking is for yall weather experts. Hopefully we can get some snow and ice.

Vickie said...

I love the blog, I really do. But I just don't have 6 minutes to listen to the video updates. I like to have some of this written down so I can read it really fast!

Hank said...

I enjoy the videos...deeper explanations plus model views. Even if I don't have time, I can read the twitter updates then watch the video later! Thanks Todd!

SnowbirdBob said...

This is & will be a very tough forecast...These types of events dealing with low level cold air are some of the toughest situations for forecasting during the winter months..Here are a few thoughts for the Dec. 4-7 Time-frame...Northern & Western Ark ends with a little of wintry mix,But,Its not over.. there is still energy left behind,By that time the low level cold air has progressed south into N La..Then there is still enough moisture to cause problems, Such as a period of freezing rain or drizzle,Maybe a little sleet or snow,Depending on the depth of the airmass..I am saying I-40 south into N La...Just a few possibilitys...Still Plenty of time to watch the models..It maybe a hour to hour watch as the cold air is filtering in? & Then there is the Euro model..It has another cut off low moving over Ark that would spit out snow flurries for a large area that wouldnt amount to much..That would be after the heavy rainfall..Still thinking the COLDEST AIRMASS arriving between Dec.8-12..High's in the 20's & 30's with low's in the teen's & 20's Statewide..We Shall See.

Bob Read
AKA"SnowbirdBob"

JasonWishcasterHampton said...

Yes sir. It will happen sometime next week for Northern and Central Arkansas. If C or N Arkansas doesnt see at least a Winter Weather Advisory from the 7-12 I wont make another post on this blog until Jan. Coldest around 10-13, but unlike most years when the extreme cold pushes the moisture out we will have some upper level storms to play with this time?

JasonBHampton said...

Opps...5-12.

Anonymous said...

Could northern and central arkansas see its first accumulating snow?

SnowbirdBob said...

Well Jason, I am with you on that, So, I give you a 95% Chance of still posting on here..lol..Not only could you see Winter Weather Advisorys, There is an outside chance of seeing a Winter Storm Warning for NW & Poss.North Central Arkansas...I am with you on the Cold air also, But, Yeah Dry, Like you said watch for a few small disturbances moving in from the North...Early Predictions NW Ark...3-6 Iches of Snow, Central Ark..1-2 Inches with a little of Mix in there as well, Southern is more trickey..They will have the moisture around longer but will the Cold air be in place, If so, It could get a little rough down there in S Ark??..Still plenty of time for anything...We Shall See

SnowbirdBob

Anonymous said...

Thanks to my SoundHound app on my iPod, I finally figured out the theme in every video for the first 30 seconds is from the song The Spirit of the Radio. LOL

Anonymous said...

Will mountain home arkansas see its first accumulating snow monday?

J.Betnar said...

Props to Todd for the Rush during the video intro!

anticyclogiant said...

any of you weather bloggers want to weigh in on all this cold air coming down with the artic oscillation so highly positive?

J.Betnar said...

The arctic oscillation isn't the only variable at play here. We must also consider the NAO & AAO. I am too lazy to check them tho.

JasonBHampton said...

Looks like I will have a couple chances for a advisory in my time frame...6th-7th and 12th-13th. Models dont look good for me, but I dont like models much anyway dealing with early season Winter Storms in the South. We will see. Coldest air of the season prediction does good though 10th-11th....Highs in the 30's lows in the teens for Northern Ar? Thats not too cold for this time of year, but still the coldest air we have seen so far.

Did anyone see accuweathers new updated forecast for the South *yawns*?