Friday, January 27, 2012

Colder Air After A Warm Up?

The information about winter tornadoes over the past 60 years is in the previous blog post. 

6:15 PM Tuesday Update... Sorry I haven't been able to update the blog today.  It's my day off and I have been spending as much time as possible with my family.


I want to let everyone know that the computer models show a threat for strong/severe thunderstorms late Friday.  Remember though, just 48 hours ago, it showed cold and snow and now it has thunderstorms.  Even though we are closer to the time frame, I'm not completely buying the outlook for strong/severe thunderstorms YET, BUT I want you to know now what's going on with all the data.  I'll post more about the situation later.   Remember though, it's La Nina!  Active and early severe weather season!


9:30 AM Tuesday Update...  I will have a new blog post soon.  As expected, the models continue to change their tune.  The massive cold air does not look likely this weekend, but it will get cooler.  While we're flirting with 70 now, temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s for highs.  It's MUCH cooler, but that's actually where we should be this time of the year.  Again, more info coming soon!!

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For all of us snow lovers, it has been a tough winter!  I continue to look for any signs of colder air and I think I see SOME promise down the road.  Nothing snowy yet, but we must have a pattern change at some point to deliver the cold air.  The European model and now the GFS shows the jet stream buckling a little.  This amplification can lead to the transport of colder air masses into portions of the country.  The way the models are showing the set up now, it would bring a shot of cold air into the central and eventually the eastern United States.  I want to remind everyone here that this is the long range and so much can change!  I find it very hard to believe we will go through February without something wintry.  You know I'll watch it for you!!!!

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This is the European model valid next Saturday morning, the 4th of February.  At 500 mb, you can see the jet stream amplifying with a ridge of high pressure across the Rockies and a downstream trough digging into the mid south.  This would deliver well below average temperatures into the state, but for how long?
At the surface, the European model shows the rain/snow line well south (that's the red dashed line through southern AR).  Don't get exited, this is just a good indicator of how cold the air is.  I don't expect much moisture with this.  High pressure at the surface is located across the northern plains.  The black lines are isobars... lines of equal barometric pressure.  The northerly flow at the surface will bring a chilly wind to the state.  There isn't much snow cover to the north.  If there was, it would be even colder!
This is the Euro late next Saturday showing the continued push of cold air from Canada.  IF this would verify, look for highs in the 30s with lows in the teens and 20s.
The GFS also shows the cold air at the surface, but it's a bit further to the east.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Todd i hope u dont get everyone fired up to early over this "chilly" air for late next week. I have learned one thing over the years on this blog. That being said i trust the models as about as much as i see Ned Perme going outside in a snowstorm building a snowman. Look no one asked but my opinion is the closer we get the chilly air wont be that chilly. These models have a way of OVERDOING the cold. I see maybe upper 40s maybe low 50s statewide. Same thing we seen all winter. Its just not our winter.

Anonymous said...

Oh well. "There's always next year."

Anonymous said...

Winter is not over!! It is just beginning.

Anonymous said...

We have a little more than a month and winter is over. It's not beginning. It's hopeless.

Anonymous said...

Oh, how I dread the coming days of summer. The flies. The mosquitoes. The bites and itches. The loud insect noise in the evening. The sweat. The heat exhaustion.

:(

Anonymous said...

HI TODD looks like that snow dance not going to help this year. Ha ha ha. I think weather ninja is the worst forecaster on the planet. I think u todd are the best weathrman in arkansas hands down. And my whole family feels the same way.

Anonymous said...

I just want everyone to know feb is almost here. I think we get at least one winter storm for the midsouth this month. I agree with the weather ninja is over rated. I think he just copies noaa and doesnt make his own predictions. He waffles more then slick willy. At least snowbird bob is a man. He goes out on a limb and not afraid to do so. Now todd is the king of meterologists in this state. He is ny far the best one in the midsouth. Me and my friends are thankful he has chosen to stay here in this state. We all trust channel 7 as our weather leader. This blog is amazing and i feel very privaleged to have it.

Anonymous said...

The NWS comments regarding next weekend (Feb 2 - 5):

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED
LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH RECENT CONSECUTIVE RUNS. CHANGES TO
FORECASTS DURING THIS PERIOD REFLECT AN INCREASED FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTING FEATURES.

What?????????????

English, please! How about just saying the models don't have a clue.

Oh well, I have just about given up on winter weather this year. I was walking my dogs this morning and even though it was chilly there was a "springtime" feel to the air. It's hard to imagine any snow on the ground. I love the little teasers on twitter - the hints at what these crazy models show in one run, then take away in the next. Todd, Snowbird, Ninja - you guys need to whip those models into agreement for some winter weather!

Susan in Heber......

Omarr Wilson said...

Guys Here's The Deal. What Todd Was Saying was Not To "Fire" Anyone Up. He's just Putting it out there That Some Type Of Winter Weather Is Not TOTALLY Out of the Question. Bc It's Only January/Early Febuary. Plus A Good weather Forecaster Is To NEVER Trust a long Term Weather Model in the First place. B/c Things Change. At this Point Moisture Looks Limited. No good Winter Weather event without Moisture.! Lets Just Wait and see What Happens.!

Anonymous said...

This weather is great. I hope it stays like this until april. Then i know it will heat up big time. This kind of weather is good for the electric bill. I live out off of fifteen acres and i leave my windows open. Todd your doing great with this warm weather keep it up. We just have a few more weeks to go and we should be out of the woods. Who needs cold and snow. Its overated. We all love this weather its AWESOME. love your blog by the way.

SnowbirdBob said...

Hello Everyone, I know many of you dont like Winter & Snow..& Many of you like Winter & Snow...Most of you out there has written winter off...Well, I am hear to tell you by my predictions if you dont like winter or have written it off..Not So fast My Friend..lol..We are currently in a postion with signals that has not been seen since last winter, NAO going Negative, AO going Negative..Next 7-15 Days Blocking over the Pole..We currently have a Brutal airmass in place in Alaska & Europe..So.. To put it lightly..The Cold has to go somewhere other than over the Pole..Does that mean it gets shoved over Aisia or North America...Well, most of Europe is in the Deep Freeze right now, So, Yes.. I think the lower 48 is in line next to recieve these Brutal Temps...Feb.10-28..Arctic Outbreak Watch..Yes, I think that includes the Deep South & Arkansas...Will it bring rounds of Wintry Weather?? Possible..In my opinion..Winter hasn't even started..I am sticking with my 20-30 Year Cold Snap...Everyone is entitled to their own opinions & I just laid mine out there..We Shall See..

SnowbirdBob

Anonymous said...

Looking at the 7 day forecast now REALLY makes me sick.

After this "cold front" passes by, it will probably warm up once again.

jimmylee42 said...

Looking at some very interesting weather info from Alaska, and then comparing past with present conditions. Today at 11AM Bettles Alaska was 122 degrees colder than LR at -60 degrees. Saw where some Alaska cities had broken some daily cold records from January 1971 and 1989. Those winters are ringing a bell with me, because of what happened in LR those two years. Feb 1989 we had an early Feb cold wave that was very brutal, with several days highs in the teens and 20's with some accumulating snow during that cold spell and then some more in March. In the 1971 March month we had one of our top 5 snowfalls of all time for the month of March.

I will be curious to see if this cold air in Alaska finally transports south in a modified cold air mass. According to Alaska forecasts it will be on the move, but where who knows. Temps in Bettles and Fort Yukon will be above zero by this Sunday. Their highs have been in the 40 below to as low as 51 below and lows in the 60 to 65 below range at times. It sure leaves me wondering if we have some winter weather coming to us in LR.

I am really curious and will be looking to see if LR ends the winter season with not a singe high below 40 degrees nor a low temp below 20. Either one of these would be a very rare event on its own, but even rarer if both happened in the same winter season. I don't remember both happening ever in the same winter.

E.T. said...

This has been the most boring winter in a long time. Here are some unofficial snowfall totals this winter for the following cities. Little rock 16 inches Tulsa .02 , Oklahoma City 0 , wichita zip, dallas nada, memphis goose egg, get the picture now. Just think guys next winter should be our year. Would be unheard of to have two back to back winters like this.

E.T. said...

Correction on the above post. Should be Little Rock 1. 6 inches of snow. One thing to possibly look out for this year would be a late killing freeze in aprl. Just a thought but very possible.

Anonymous said...

Its notgoing to get cold enough for snow. Everybody keeps talking about a pattern change. What pattern change? Is been the same since fall. You guys would think something would have changed in the weather by now?