Sunday, January 15, 2012

Record Warm January?

As a snow lover, it's time to face the facts about this month and this winter.  Looking at all the long range models, they all agree the extreme cold will stay bottled up across Canada and Alaska through at least the end of the month.  With the first half of the month already well above average in terms of temperature, we must now look and see if any new monthly records will be established.  It's quite possible this month will end up in the top 10 warmest January's in Little Rock weather history.  We will have a cold front which will cool us down on Tuesday and Wednesday, but then it's right back into the warmth.  I have been calling these fronts, "islands of cool in a sea of winter warmth."

Another aspect to keep an eye on is an intense area of low pressure the European model has consistently displayed for Monday January 23rd into Tuesday January 24th.  We MUST watch for the possibility of severe weather.  We have always said that an early and active severe weather season for 2012 was highly likely and this is the first system to really keep an eye on.  With it being in the long range, things can and hopefully will change.

Winter weather lovers, don't lose all hope.   We still have February and the first part of March.  Growing up in Arkansas, I know how wild things can get as we head closer to spring.   Any jet stream amplification able to tap that cold air at higher latitudes can really bring wild weather to much of the country and I think things will get rather active as we go into February and March.  I just hope it's not severe thunderstorms.  In other words, I'm not throwing in the towel on winter weather possibilities yet.  We were spoiled last winter!   Maybe this year will bring a few late winter surprises we can all remember and I hope it's snow and not ice!

Now, let's look at the January records...

Top 10 WARMEST January's by average monthly HIGH temperature.

(According to the National Weather Service, as of January 14th, the average high has been 56 degrees.)
  1. 1880 - 64.29 degrees
  2. 2006 - 61.50 degrees
  3. 1907 - 58.97 degrees
  4. 1923 - 58.77 degrees
  5. 1950 - 58.71 degrees
  6. 1990 - 57.42 degrees
  7. 1933 - 58.35 degrees
  8. 1890 - 57.42 degrees
  9. 1953 - 56.81 degrees
  10. 1911 - 56.42 degrees

Top 10 WARMEST January's by average monthly LOW temperature.

(According to the National Weather Service, as of January 14th, the average low has been 35 degrees.)
  1. 1880 - 47.68 degrees
  2. 1907 - 42.61 degrees
  3. 1933 - 41.94 degrees
  4. 1890 - 41.94 degrees
  5. 1950 - 40.65 degrees
  6. 1923 - 40.58 degrees
  7. 1932 - 40.26 degrees
  8. 1911 - 40.13 degrees
  9. 1952 - 39.55 degrees
  10. 1921 - 39.10 degrees

Top 10 WARMEST January's by average monthly temperature.

(According to the National Weather Service, as of January 14th, the average temperature has been 45.5 degrees.)
  1. 1880 - 55.98 degrees
  2. 1907 - 50.45 degrees
  3. 1933 - 50.15 degrees
  4. 1890 - 50.02 degrees
  5. 2006 - 49.80 degrees
  6. 1950 - 49.68 degrees
  7. 1923 - 49.68 degrees
  8. 1911 - 48.27 degrees
  9. 1990 - 48.11 degrees
  10. 1932 - 48.00 degrees
Now let's take a look at the storm system that must be watched on January 23rd and 24th according to the European model.

Low pressure is centered across northeast Oklahoma.  It appears the low is able to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture.  The big question is instability.  There are a lot of factors that can't be answered since this is still in the long range.  Will there be ample amounts of cloud cover ahead of the system to limit the instability or not? Will the front come through during the peak heating of the day when instability levels are highest or at night when they can drop off?  However, according to the maps I have analyzed, this is a favorable track to bring us stormy weather and it must be watched.  The red dashed line slicing through Kansas into central Oklahoma is the "540 line".  This is a good indicator to the rain/snow line.  There's some strong cold air behind the system so taking this literally, there would be some flakes flying on the back side of the system with storms in front.  Very dynamic for sure!!!!
24 hours later, the low lifts to the northeast with the front now in Alabama.  Cold air is filtering into the state, but this would be another situation where it's cold for a day or two, then warms up again.


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11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Slight cool downs and big warm fronts so far this winter.

This angers me. One day I'm going to move up to northern Minnesota!

Anonymous said...

I am thinking we will see storms around the 25th of this month than after that the cold air comes in. Hopefully February is Cold and Snowy.Here is to hoping for Snow.

Anonymous said...

LaNina may be weak but it definitely having an influence on Arkansas. Severe weather is a huge concern. Warm winters equal long severe weather systems. Let's hope LaNina goes away soon. Todd keep us informed.

E.T. said...

Thanks Todd for all you do on the weather blog. You are the most trusted meterologist in Arkansas. You keep us weather folks informed all yer long. Just wanted to say thank you. That is a neat blog about this could go down in history as one of the warmest januarys on record. That would be something considering how cold and snowy last winter was. I have a feeling we will have a couple of shots at snow in febuary.

Anonymous said...

I'm personally hoping this warmth continues through February and March. I like the warm weather. Bring on Spring already!

Anonymous said...

Sorry, but I honestly don't understand how you could possibly like warm weather. It defies all logic.

Anonymous said...

IF U CANT TALK ABOUT THE WEATHER ON THE BLOG ON TWITTER THEN DONT SAY ANYTHING AT ALL IM SO SICK OF GETTIN ON HERE SEEING IM SO PROUD OF MY WIFE REALLY REALLY REALLY NOT BN UGLY LIKE THEM DRESSES U TALK ABOUT ON HERE BUT PLZ KEEP IT ABOUT THE WEATHER LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LOVE U TODD AND SNOWBIRD OOOO AND MY WIFE I LOVE U BABY UR THE BEST

Anonymous said...

I totally agree with the last comment glad someone is sayin something about this it need to be stopped Todd u tha man

Anonymous said...

I totally agree with the last comment glad someone is sayin something about this it need to be stopped Todd u tha man

SnowbirdBob said...

Hello Everyone, This will be my shortest post Ever! Here comes Winter!! Jan.25-Early March!!..No..I dont think we escape wothout having an Arkansas Weather Live or Winter Storm Warnings :)or Maybe a few?? We Shall See..

SnowbirdBob

Omarr Wilson said...

Bob I agree.! Maybe a Few. But we are running out of time Quickly. If Anything is Gona happen. It will have to be in that Window of time. But We must Make way for the Storm Season. Wich could Start early In a Few Days. I'm still holding out Hope though.!