Friday morning update... The winter contest will come to an end next week. Here are the latest numbers for contest #2
As of Friday February 24th.... 3280
Before I get into the model madness for next week, don't forget the winter weather contest is in its final stretch. I talked to the "WeatherNinja" this morning and he says the contest is down to 4 people right now as he calculates some preliminary numbers. Those contestants are Paula Cunningham, Amy Braswell, Joey Langston, and Ninja. However, Ninja is NOT eligible to win so it's technically down to 3 people. I'll keep you updated and good luck as we go into the final stretch of the contest.
We told you to hold on tight because we are going on a wild ride over the next week or so. If you are familiar with Arkansas weather, you know this is very typical this time of year. We can get major swings in the temperature from day to day as winter and spring fight it out. We'll be near 80 Thursday, but struggle to get out of the 50s Friday. Then another warm up will start as we await our next storm system next week.
Once again, there will be a major clash in air masses across the United States next week. Determining where this sets up is the big question. For several model runs, the GFS and Euro once indicated low level arctic air would find its way into Arkansas with the chance for some frozen precipitation as an area of low pressure tracked south of Arkansas. I was very hesitant buying into this scenario! Now, the data suggests the low could track north of the state. This is a possibility that's worth more consideration. This would keep the cold air locked up further north and place Arkansas in the warm sector opening the door to the possibility for thunderstorms. While this could still go either way, I would place my bets on the low tracking further north. Time will tell, but one thing looks likely, Leap Year Day will be quite unsettled for Arkansas and many locations across the central United States.
Check out the model maps below and see all the disagreement between the various runs.
|This is the 00Z Euro valid late Wednesday. This is showing the area of low pressure over western Ohio! This means Arkansas would be in the warm sector with rain and storms possible.|