10 PM Thursday Update... I just crunched the numbers for March and it still looks like we'll end up as the warmest March ever in Little Rock by average high temperature and average monthly temperature. As far as average low temperature is concerned, we'll come in 2nd only behind 1907.
The numbers are really incredible. Based on forecast temperatures Friday and Saturday, we'll end up with an average high temperature this month of 76.06 degrees. This surpasses the previous warmest March in history by 2.66 degrees (2007- 73.40 degrees). I'm projecting the average monthly temperature will be 64.27 degrees which surpasses the previous record of 63.06 degrees in 1907. We're living through weather history right now!
But as they say in the commercials, "BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE". The total rain for the month of March is 8.05''. If we receive only .02'' of rainfall by Saturday night, we'll break into the top 10 wettest March's in Little Rock history.
For information on the possibility for severe weather next Monday, look below. There's model disagreement, so nothing is certain at this point.
Several days ago, I posted about the possibilities for some rough weather next week and the models continue to show that. Meteorologist Barry Brandt always says you can count on some sort of severe weather in Arkansas around the first week in April. Not because he wants it, but it's almost like mother nature has her own internal clock when it comes to these things.
While it's Thursday, there is soooo much that can change, but I think it would be wise to start getting the word out now that everyone needs to stay weather aware through the weekend about Monday. Here are a few maps below.
|According to the GFS run last night, there will be plenty of instability Monday afternoon. The amount of CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy, is more than enough for severe weather with amounts more than 2000 joules per kilogram|
|At the 5000 foot level winds are out of the southwest. This brings a "turning" of the wind with height. This shear is part of what makes tornadoes possible|