Thursday, March 29, 2012

Monday Severe Weather Possibilities

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10 PM Thursday Update... I just crunched the numbers for March and it still looks like we'll end up as the warmest March ever in Little Rock by average high temperature and average monthly temperature.  As far as average low temperature is concerned, we'll come in 2nd only behind 1907. 

The numbers are really incredible.  Based on forecast temperatures Friday and Saturday,  we'll end up with an average high temperature this month of 76.06 degrees.  This surpasses the previous warmest March in history by 2.66 degrees (2007- 73.40 degrees).  I'm projecting the average monthly temperature will be 64.27 degrees which surpasses the previous record of 63.06 degrees in 1907.  We're living through weather history right now!


But as they say in the commercials, "BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE".  The total rain for the month of March is 8.05''.  If we receive only .02'' of rainfall by Saturday night, we'll break into the top 10 wettest March's in Little Rock history.

For information on the possibility for severe weather next Monday, look below.  There's model disagreement, so nothing is certain at this point.
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Several days ago, I posted about the possibilities for some rough weather next week and the models continue to show that.  Meteorologist Barry Brandt always says you can count on some sort of severe weather in Arkansas around the first week in April.  Not because he wants it, but it's almost like mother nature has her own internal clock when it comes to these things.

While it's Thursday, there is soooo much that can change, but I think it would be wise to start getting the word out now that everyone needs to stay weather aware through the weekend about Monday.   Here are a few maps below.

According to the GFS run last night, there will be plenty of instability Monday afternoon.  The amount of CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy, is more than enough for severe weather with amounts more than 2000 joules per kilogram

Notice the black closed line in OK.  This is the surface area of low pressure.  The little black lines all over the place are wind barbs which point to the direction from which the wind is coming from at the surface.  In Arkansas, it's all south and southeast.  As these winds can "back" in front of the surface low, that indicates a potential for storms to rotate and a tornado threat could become a possibility.  The warm red colors indicate temperatures.  There will be warm air in place and moisture data says plenty of fuel from the Gulf of Mexico will be present.
At the 5000 foot level winds are out of the southwest.  This brings a "turning" of the wind with height.  This shear is part of what makes tornadoes possible
This is the storm at 500mb.  This is a potent low which is takes on a negative tilt.  This bundled piece of energy over Oklahoma will provide the spark to ignite the storms with an environment in place which is conducive to some very rough weather.  THAT'S IF THIS MODEL VERIFIES. REMEMBER, MUCH CAN CHANGE AND I HOPE IT DOES, BUT THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE FAVORED TIME OF YEAR FOR THIS TO HAPPEN SO STAY TUNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Storm Predication Center forecasting mainly wind and hail with isolated tornadoes. Let's hope the threat for tornadoes stays low. Severe weather followed by a cooldown in commom around Easter in Arkansas. In fact, it is almost a gurantee.

Anonymous said...

Uggggh. Yesterday the 7 day forecast showed hope of a slight cool down with the highs as low as 72. Now, today it's showing it with highs mostly in the 80's and no cool down!

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-Talk about history and making history. I looked at the records for those two years you mentioned in your post, 1918 and 1940. Heat records for March and those years had our coldest Januarys on record with averages of 28.6 and 29.0 respectively.

As you know, some of the upper midwest states have blown up their records for March. I read that someone associated with Accuweather speculated that the debris field from the tsunami in Japan is so wide and long and vast that it might be responsible for some of the incredible temperature variations. It is amazing when you see pictures from space just how much of the Pacific this debris has covered.

Anonymous said...

I love looking at Antarctica on the interactive radar. -73 degrees at Station 89828! Would definitely trade locations. Those researchers really do have it made.