12:45 PM Thursday update... As expected, the heavy rain and cooler temperatures are here. The uncertainties earlier in the week are becoming almost crystal clear with what should happen through the weekend. After a few inches of rain today into Friday morning, we should receive a break in the rain Friday afternoon through Saturday. This is allow the ground to absorb the water, then the next round will swing through late Saturday, Sunday, and into early Monday morning. This poses a threat for some localized flooding since it will be on top of Thursday's rainfall. However, like I said, the ground will have at least some time to absorb all the water.
I'm still looking at data which suggests very warm temperatures next week with highs pushing 80 degrees and beyond. If this happens, daily record highs may be challenged. More on that later.
|This is Futurecast predicting total rain from 6 AM Thursday into 7 PM Saturday. I think this is fairly realistic for central and southern Arkansas. This does not take into account the rainfall Sunday.|
|Picture of a tree on top of several cars on the UCA campus from Thursday morning. So far, no reports of injuries.|
Have a leak in your roof? You're about to find out soon! Washed your car this week? We'll then you're to blame for the soakers. I did both our cars Monday so I guess this might be considered my fault.
Yes, it's spring and we should expect rain during our wet season, but as you know here in Arkansas, there can be too much at one time. The farmers are in the fields getting ready for the planting season and this period of heavy rain will more than likely delay things. For the firefighters, this will no doubt make their jobs a little easier.
As I stated earlier this week, there were uncertainties as to how all of this will play out and now it's becoming much, much more clear.
The first round of rain will enter the state Thursday as a cold front will slowly push through the state from north to south. Rain will become heavy at times. While amounts could easily add up to 1-2'' with localized higher amounts, we can handle that due to the dry ground. However, if it's heavy, then runoff could become a concern. There's also a slight risk for severe weather issued by the Storm Prediction Center. While this will be watched carefully, the risk is on the low side for much of central and southern Arkansas.
The next round of rain should enter the state late Saturday into Sunday. This is where things can get a little messy. The ground will be somewhat saturated by this point and any additional heavy rainfall could cause localized flooding. This round could easily dump another 1-3'' across the state and locally heavier amounts. The area of low pressure aloft could make a track favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms as well. HOWEVER, the level of instability will hopefully be low due to clouds and rain. This element as well will be watched, but again, it's heavy rain that could be the main problem. Let's just say hypothetically, we do get some strong storms. If there are gusty winds, it would be easier for trees to fall due to the soil being loosened up by excessive rainfall.
Welcome to spring right? There can be wild swings in the weather and this is absolutely nothing new. By the way, want snow? Portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle may deal with some heavy wet snow while all this plays out! Wish I was there!
|Here's the surface chart from HPC valid late Thursday. The cold front moving through the state will be slow with an abundant amount of moisture surrounding it. Rainfall will be locally heavy and should end from north to south by early Friday.|
|This is the GFS at the surface showing rain moving back into much of Arkansas Saturday night. Some of this will be heavy and since the ground will have moisture from the previous rains, this is when some flooding will be possible.|
|HPC 5 day rainfall totals show a large area of the state receiving as much as 5'' of rainfall. This will be spread out from Thursday into Sunday.|
|Our model, "Futurecast" indicates as much as 2'' with the initial round Thursday into Friday morning.|
|Slight risk for severe weather by SPC Thursday for central and southern Arkansas|
Arkansas Boys Clear the way To Chicago. Their mini dom gets the attention of Bosch and Storm Chaser, Reed Timmer.