VERY Active Weather Ahead. Storms & Flooding Possible

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

I hope everyone had a fantastic Easter with friends and family.  It was also my twin nieces birthday so we had 3 reasons to celebrate.  I put my diet on hold for a full day and now I'm back on the wagon.  By the way, if you're wondering about "Toning Todd" which started last November, I'm down about 20 pounds.  That's where I want to stay.

The weather this week is somewhat active, but nothing compared to the POTENTIAL for next week.  It's wayyyyyyyy too early to pinpoint any specifics, but I can see both a severe weather and flooding threat setting up and I'll explain with maps below.  Just as in previous storms this spring, the area of low pressure aloft may get cut off from the main flow.  If this happens, we'll not only have the potential for severe weather, but also flooding.  This depends very heavily on where everything sets up though.  The flow ahead of the low will be out of the southwest and a front at the surface will not be able to move much.  Several disturbances could move through that flow and produce multiple rounds of rain and storms.  This would bring a threat for flooding and severe weather.  Remember, we're almost a week away from this happening so a lot can change.  Check out the maps below.

This is the morning run of the GFS valid next Friday morning.  Notice the surface area of high pressure over the Carolina's.  There's an area of low pressure over the Dakota's as well.  The circulation around these two features will draw plenty of warm and moist air off the Gulf of Mexico.  The fuel for an active weather pattern will be in place.  The actual storm system is located over the western United States.  Notice the blue dashed lines over CA.  Those are low thickness values (cold air)  associated with the upper level area of low pressure.  The storm is still well west of Arkansas at this point.

This is late Sunday indicating the front draped over Texas into Oklahoma, then northeastward.  This is where the axis of heaviest rain is located according to this model.  This area will shift all over the place with each and every model run over the next several days!!!!!  While we don't trust ANY specifics, look at the pattern.  There will be the potential for multiple rounds of rain associated with the front and upper low.

The GFS valid next Monday morning shows the slow moving front over Arkansas with rain and some of it could be heavy according to this.  Each round of rain would have the potential to produce severe weather, especially where instability is highest. This would tend to favor afternoon and evenings when solar heating can get the atmosphere worked up.

This is the upper level pattern early next Monday morning.  The low across the southwest is opening up and making a move to the east.  Notice the black lines over Arkansas area oriented from the southwest to the northeast.  This southwesterly wind flow aloft will not allow the surface front to move much.  Disturbances ejecting out of the main low to the west would trigger multiple rounds of rain and storms.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the same areas to our west under a risk for some severe weather late this week into the weekend.  This is where the front will be positioned with disturbances causing trouble for them.

SO THIS IS MY ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DATA THIS MONDAY MORNING.  I WANT TO STRESS THIS... IT CAN AND WILL CHANGE.  THE MODELS WILL FLIP FLOP LIKE CRAZY UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  REGARDLESS, MOST MAJOR COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A VERY ACTIVE PATTER WITH THE DETAILS STILL TO BE DETERMINED.  I'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED!!!!