Sunday, November 11, 2012

Sunday Storm Specifics

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN
TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

About a week ago, I brought up the possibility for some severe weather today as a strong cold front marches through the state.  While I don't expect this to be an "outbreak", we will likely see some storms reach severe limits with wind the primary threat.  Some hail can also be expected.  I continue to think the tornado threat remains quite low, but never say never to Arkansas weather.  Also, there will be heavy rainfall.  Another big story will be the rapid plunge in temperature behind the front.  There will be a huge contrast from the northwestern portions of the state late today to the southeast.  It could be as much as a 30 to 40 degree swing.  Winds will howl today out of the south 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph easily.  

I have maps below which will answer all your questions as to the timing of the front and rainfall.

At 4PM today, this hi res model shows a line of storms over western Arkansas.  A solid line would increase the wind threat while minimizing the tornado threat.  We MUST watch out for any discrete storms which form ahead of the line, especially across central and southwest Arkansas.  While the chance is LOW, if a storm did develop, we would need to watch for some rotation there.
Here's another hi res model valid at 5PM, notice it does show some activity ahead of the main line in southwest Arkansas.  I'll be watching that very closely.
At 6 PM, the line of storm according to this model will be entering central Arkansas.  The red and purple areas shows where the heavy rain, wind, and maybe some hail will occur.
By 8 PM, the line of storms will be situated from northeast Arkansas through central and southwest areas of the state.  Temperatures are tumbling FAST in western areas of Arkansas behind the front.
My midnight, this fast moving line is crossing the Mississippi River with falling temperatures across most of the state.
This hi res model is valid at 6PM and shows 2 meter temperatures.  It's extremely obvious where the front is located.  Look at the 70s across central and eastern areas and temperatures tumbling into the 30s and 40s for western and northern Arkansas.
By 9PM, the front has cleared most of central Arkansas with mild conditions remaining across the east.
By 6AM Monday morning, most of central and northern Arkansas could be in the 20s and 30s with 40s SE.  Turn the furnace back on!
HPC shows widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts
The SPC has most of the state in a slight risk for severe weather.  The main threats will be wind and hail.  A brief and isolated tornado will be possible, but it's low.
This area outlined in 30% means there's a 30% chance for severe thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of any given point.
This area in 15% means there is a 15% chance for severe hail within 25 miles of any given point.
The SPC shows a 5% chance for a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in the brown shaded area.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

No snowbirdbob, that wasn't Weatherninja who posted that comment regarding your painfully obvious purchase of 5000 fake followers. Just another anonymous arwx geek. I doubt he was jealous over something as trivial as that. Sorry Bob, but it was no secret to begin with. Anyone with half a brain would have noticed the massive increase in followers you had. Yes, you've been "lit", as Weatherninja calls it, because no matter how many times everyone commands you to discontinue such inaccurate WISHCASTING, you fail to oblige like you promise.

E.T. said...

Well i for one like SnowbirdBobs forecasting or as some of you call it wishcasting... To be honest I look forward to seeing his tweets about the possibility of cold weather and snow in arkansas... I check several times a day for his tweets starting in late November or December 1st all the way up to early march.. I for one hope snowbirdbob does not change a thing about his tweeting... i want to know what his thoughts are about our chances of snow are and if he sees anything in our future... My name on twitter is TWEATHERGUY. I also love winter weather and enjoy following this blog ,...this time of year... Todd I think you are the top meteroligist in ark... I also enjoy your tweets on the weather and check for them several times a day a well...

SnowbirdBob said...

To Anonynous...Maybe it wasnt Ninja..I cant help how many followers I have..Its a free country..people can follow who they want..If you dont like my forecasting..Then..I guess go look at the back of a tree or watch a squirrel pick up his nuts or something...I like wishcasting a little..Hey sometimes thats all we have down here in the Mid-South..I will try to cut back on that though..Anyway, I love this Blog & all yall out there..We are like family...I will continue to be Snowbird Sorry..I like having fun with the Weather..If I took it serious all the time..what fun what that be??..People need to lighten up out there..Really?? Someone talking about fake followers..lol..I have heard it all now..Who is ready for some real Winter..I know I am...Yall take care..Have a Great Day!

Bob Read AKA SnowbirdBob

Anonymous said...

No need to get offended. No, I do not like your wishcasting, since it leads to disappointment in the end, but that's why I look at Todd's and Michael's tweets instead. Weatherninja knows that you bought the followers because it can easily be inferred between his and your tweeting. He thought only you and him knew about the purchase. Seriously, you have about 400 followers one day. Next thing we know, you have 5,400 followers? And you've had that many followers for months, so it was an obvious purchase. The more you pay for fake followers, the more realistic they look.

SnowbirdBob said...

To Anonymous..That's fine..You dont have to read my tweets..I am who I say I am..SnowbirdBob..I am accurate sometimes..Yes, last year I had a down year..the year before was a great year..Even, the best forecasters in the World have thier down times..I had so many new followers was because of my Facebook Page & My Website for my Mechanic Shop here in West Monroe,La..I have had over 50,000 views on my website & many follow me on Twitter also..So, Please leave the Twitter thing alone...If you post again...I will not respond..Todd, I think you need to put a page on the Blog that Reads "Wishcasting SnowbirdBob".I think it would be a Great edition!
Anyway to the person about my twitter followers..Its my personal business how I got those..If I bought them or I got them thru my Business & Facebook...Hope we can all get along..Hey Todd, Think about that..Really!! :)See Ya

Bob Read AKA SnowbirdBob

Michael Hook said...

Snowbird Bob, no matter how much you want to believe that it is me, questioning your twitter followers and wishcasting, I can assure you that it is no

Your answer surprised me though....

Michael Hook





SnowBirdbBob said...

Ninja, I say lets put thing to rest & get on with our forecasting..Well..My wishcasting & your Forecasting..lol..I beleive you man...No, Love lost here :)...I am ready to legally Wishcast..Hopefully soon..My Wishcasting however will have Blog post & weather maps showing possibilitys of Upcoming Weather Events..I will not just throw something out there..That's if I get the shot to do that..I will also put up Video Blogs..Trust me, My Blog Post will be full of Details & Excitement...Hey..I think the South needs a Great Wishcaster..As you all know..some will come true & some will not..
Still dont know for sure yet...
Hey..Ninja..I still think your the Greatest Forecaster on The Planet!
my little girl talks of you sometime,she still has that little Kids weather book you gave her last winter..Your a great guy..Your just Ninja..lol..You are becoming a father figure to many of us young weather nuts..LOL..No, I didnt say you were old ;)..Hope to see you all this Winter...Maybe I will Wishcast my way up there later this Winter..lol..See ya

Bob Read AKA SnowbirdBob

Anonymous said...

So how bout that weather? Nice weather these past couple of mornings. 30's with a nice breeze, perfect for slowly walking in a t-shirt in.

E.T. said...

Little Rock hit 32 degrees on November 13. Mother nature timed it just right... I am waiting on that true arctic air with lows in the single digits up north and teens central ark... Hopefully that will come mid December... I would love to see a blanket of snow on the ground at Christmas... I hope this winter brings no freezing rain but plenty of snow....

E.T. said...

Hey Todd I like this blog very much... Thanks for making it possible for us amatures like myself for expressing our thoughts on here... Todd thanks for all the hard work you put in this blog.... Ninja thanks for your input on here as well... I have learned alot since I have been on this blog..... I know the busy time of year is getting close with all the winter storms around the country... Let's hope we can get 1 or 2 of them around here this winter...

jimmylee42 said...

SBB Enjoying your posts and thinking you might be on to something this winter. I believe we will have at least one heavy accumlating snow. We may or may not have any single digit readings in LR in 2012-2013, but in the winter of 2013-14 I believe we will have some record cold with lows down to zero and total winter snow at least in double digits.