About a week ago, I brought up the possibility for some severe weather today as a strong cold front marches through the state. While I don't expect this to be an "outbreak", we will likely see some storms reach severe limits with wind the primary threat. Some hail can also be expected. I continue to think the tornado threat remains quite low, but never say never to Arkansas weather. Also, there will be heavy rainfall. Another big story will be the rapid plunge in temperature behind the front. There will be a huge contrast from the northwestern portions of the state late today to the southeast. It could be as much as a 30 to 40 degree swing. Winds will howl today out of the south 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph easily.
I have maps below which will answer all your questions as to the timing of the front and rainfall.
|Here's another hi res model valid at 5PM, notice it does show some activity ahead of the main line in southwest Arkansas. I'll be watching that very closely.|
|At 6 PM, the line of storm according to this model will be entering central Arkansas. The red and purple areas shows where the heavy rain, wind, and maybe some hail will occur.|
|By 8 PM, the line of storms will be situated from northeast Arkansas through central and southwest areas of the state. Temperatures are tumbling FAST in western areas of Arkansas behind the front.|
|My midnight, this fast moving line is crossing the Mississippi River with falling temperatures across most of the state.|
|This hi res model is valid at 6PM and shows 2 meter temperatures. It's extremely obvious where the front is located. Look at the 70s across central and eastern areas and temperatures tumbling into the 30s and 40s for western and northern Arkansas.|
|By 9PM, the front has cleared most of central Arkansas with mild conditions remaining across the east.|
|By 6AM Monday morning, most of central and northern Arkansas could be in the 20s and 30s with 40s SE. Turn the furnace back on!|
|HPC shows widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts|
|The SPC has most of the state in a slight risk for severe weather. The main threats will be wind and hail. A brief and isolated tornado will be possible, but it's low.|
|This area outlined in 30% means there's a 30% chance for severe thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of any given point.|
|This area in 15% means there is a 15% chance for severe hail within 25 miles of any given point.|
|The SPC shows a 5% chance for a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in the brown shaded area.|