Top 5 of 2012

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While we have definitely had memorable weather events this year, 2012 has been quiet when compared to other years. 

For example, Arkansas recorded 18 tornadoes in 2012.  This is well below the average of 33.  There were NO deaths as a result of tornadoes, thunderstorm winds, or lightning.  However, there were two flash flood fatalities.  According to National Weather Service statistics, the last time we had fewer tornadoes was 2007 when only 16 occurred.

With all that said, it was still busy at times.  Here are the top 5 weather events of the year.

5. Hot Springs Downburst.

On August the 5th, a thunderstorm collapsed over downtown Hot Springs sending out an enormous wind gust which was estimated around 80 mph.  There were around 100 structures damaged due to the high winds.  The only good news about this huge gust of wind was a significant blast of cooler air.  Temperatures dropped from 105 degrees to the upper 70s in just a few short minutes.

Downtown Hot Springs damage.

Structural damage from the winds estimated at 80 mph.

4. January 22nd tornadoes.

7 tornadoes caused plenty of destruction on this winter day across southern Arkansas.  One storm produced 5 of those tornadoes across a 6 county area.  Hardest hit areas included the north side of Fordyce.  Also, a 150 year old church in Kingsland was destroyed.  At the end of the day, there were 4 EF1 tornadoes and 3 EF2 tornadoes.

Damaged church in Kingsland.

HUGE hail in Brinkley

3. The remnants of Isaac.

In the middle of a persistent drought, the remnants of Hurricane Isaac pushed across Arkansas with much needed rain.  However, some places got more than they wanted which is typical when it comes to a tropical system.  One rain band set up over Pine Bluff and dumped several inches of rain in a very short  amount of time.  The result was a rare "flash flood emergency" issued by the NWS for that portion of the state.  Pine Bluff received 8.39'' while White Hall received 10.70''.

Here's the actual text from the warning...

"...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE PINE BLUFF AND 
   FORDYCE AREAS...

* AT 948 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED   
  TO INDICATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM      
  LONOKE TO PINE BLUFF AND FORDYCE. VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS OCCURRING    
  WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION. RAIN WAS FALLING OVER AREAS       
  THAT RECEIVED FOUR TO MORE THAN SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN               
  SINCE THURSDAY. 

  THIS IS FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE PINE BLUFF AND FORDYCE 
  AREAS.

  MANY ROADS WERE UNDER WATER IN THE PINE BLUFF
  AREA. SANDBAGGING OF HOMES WAS OCCURRING LOCALLY. A COUPLE 
  OF CARS WERE FLOATING DOWN HIGHWAY 63. AT FORDYCE...LAW
  ENFORCEMENT REPORTED HOUSES THREATENED BY HIGH WATER AND
  EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING. THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION."

Flash flooding in Pine Bluff

2. Summer drought and wildfires.

It was another long and hot summer with temperatures reaching the century mark 28 times in Little Rock.  The horrible and record breaking summer started on June 24th.  The hottest day in Little Rock was on July 30th when the mercury soared to 111 degrees.  The drought was categorized as "exceptional" by the National Weather Service for most of the state.  Firework displays were banned as wildfires raged.  By August, it started to get better as welcomed rainfall from storms and Isaac helped ease the situation.

One of many wildfires.

I saved the current conditions when we reached the scorching 111 degrees.

Smoke plumes from wildfires were common all over the state.

1. Christmas Snowstorm/Blizzard.

There were so many records broken by this rare storm.  The day started cold and windy with persistent sleet and freezing rain.  The trees in central Arkansas received a heavy coating of ice.  By late in the afternoon, the ice changed to snow and it was heavy.  10-15 inches fell across portions of central and western Arkansas.  The combination of ice, wind, and heavy snow caused devastation to trees and power lines.  At one point, more than 200 thousand lost electricity and it took 7 + days to restore all of it. 

It did become an official blizzard for northeast Arkansas and the first time a "blizzard warning" was issued by the Little Rock National Weather Service office.  The highest snow total was in the town of Perry in Perry county.   An incredible 17.5'' of snow fell. Here's a list of the records...

• The 10.3 inches which fell in Little Rock was the most for a 24 hour period in the month of December.

• The 9.0 inches which fell on December 25th was the 8th most snow to fall in a calendar day in Little Rock

• The 10.3'' on the 25th and 26th was the 6th most in history for a 24 hour period in Little Rock.

• It was the snowiest Christmas Day ever in Little Rock shattering the previous record.

Rare snow rolls which are chunks of snow blown around in the wind and get bigger.

Just 1 of the 1000's of pictures we received which shows the beauty and destruction at once.

Another beautiful shot

KATV viewer picture

Travel was tough

This makes you want to ski Pinnacle Mountain huh?

From Greg Davis.  A stunning picture of the Old State House.

My Winter Storm Story

What a week!  As I have said several times, this Christmas storm will be one you will tell your kids, grandkids, etc.  The chance we'll ever experience anything like that ON Christmas Day is slim to none. 

I was scheduled to do Daybreak on Wednesday morning the 26th so I went to bed around 9 PM on Christmas Day.  I woke up at 12:30 to look out the window and my jaw dropped to the floor.  My backyard was plastered in a coat of white I have never seen before.  It was beautiful as the snow continued to fall and the winds howled.  I thought to myself that we'll be lucky to keep power.  By 1:30 the electricity went out and I knew I would have to begin my journey into work.

Driving in the snow is no big deal to me since I did it in Missoula, Montana for 2.5 years.  This was not going to be an easy commute in so I got moving right away.  I told my wife to snuggle the kids up because I thought it would take a few hours for the power to come back on... boy was I wrong about that.  Anyway, turns out the commute into work was going to be impossible.  Trees down on the roads blocked my way out of the neighborhood.  I called the station and photojournalist, Chato Wilson, jumped in his news car and met me a half mile down the road.  That walk I will NEVER forget.  I work out at the gym 5 days a week, but that still didn't prepare me for that hike.  The snow was almost 10'' deep and drifts were higher.  Add the wind and bitter wind chills, it was a struggle to climb a hill and make it to his car.

Once I got into the station, I started to realize power wasn't coming back on anytime soon at home.  I only had a limited amount of firewood to keep my family warm.  Once I got home from work, I built a fire and moved our king size mattress into the living room next to the fireplace for everyone to sleep.  We couldn't go to my moms, brothers, or sisters house since they were in the dark as well.  That first full night we managed to keep somewhat warm as the temperature in the living room held around 60 degrees with the fireplace lit.  The next day I had to figure something out since the firewood supply was low and my infant son, Preston, had a cold and it was getting much worse.

Coincidentally, my wife's cousin was a guest at Good Morning Arkansas that morning on Thursday the 27th.  He lives in Guy and offered to bring a bunch of firewood down. I said heck yeah!!! Family is the best huh?  I offered to pay for the rick of wood, but he refused.  He made the trip back to Guy and to Little Rock again just for us.

Also, a very good friend of mine, Kyle, had lost power at his house in Maumelle.  He was lucky and it was restored within 24 hours.  He took off from work to go get his generator and brought it over to my house.  He connected it to a huge space heater and put it in the master bedroom.  HEAT!  We got it close to 70 in there.  With the new firewood, the temperature in the living room made it to 64 degrees.  We were set.  I called my mom and sister and told them to come over.

Late the next day, my power finally came back on!  However, even at the time I write this, the other side of my street doesn't have it.  We have strung extension cords over to them and connected it to the huge space heater.

This storm may have caused a ton of destruction, but it also turned out to be a blessing in disguise in my opinion.  It brought a lot of us together and created many memories.   That's what family and friends are all about... helping each other in a time of need.  Even though we know we can count on friends and family, it's very heart warming to actually see it happen and that's how we and many of you are getting through it.  By the way, Preston still has his cold, but it's getting better.  He turns 1 Tuesday.  Wish he could remember this and see what his family and friends did for him. 

Thanks for reading.  Share your story in the comment section if you like...

A Few More Flakes Possible

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10:15 AM Friday Update... The new 12Z NAM is in and there's now agreement between many of the models.  There could be some small snowfall accumulations across northern Arkansas late today into tonight.  While the modeling doesn't show much around Little Rock, it is possible to have a few flakes fly around here.

Here's the Friday AM run of the NAM indicating some snowfall accumulating to 1-3 inches across the far north into the northeast corner of the state.  Looks like there could be a bit more according to this model near the Missouri border.

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Before I get into the weather details for Friday night, I just have a few things I need to let you know.  The numbers for the winter weather contest have NOT been posted due to the lack of data from Hot Springs.  Due to various problems, that amount will be delayed getting into the National Weather Service.  I talked to them Friday morning and they tell me it will be in soon.  As soon as it is, I'll update the contest.  Without Hot Springs, the combination of Little Rock, North Little Rock, and Harrison is 20.9 inches. That will eliminate many, but keep the contest very interesting for many others!  

I'll resume regular blogging as soon as my power is restored at home.  That's where I do the majority of it.  I'm probably going to have to wait even longer for Internet to become available as well.  So please be patient.  I'll do what I can from work.  

Late today into tonight, there will be a disturbance moving through the region which could change some of the rain over to sleet then light snow before ending.  I do not think this will be a major event whatsoever!  I guess after 10-15 inches, just a dusting to an 1'' isn't a big deal anymore huh?   There will be some light accumulations possible, especially across northeast Arkansas.  Here are a few of the computer models and what they're saying.

The RPM indicates light snow accumulations for north central into northeast Arkansas with a few flakes as far south as Little Rock

Our model "Futurecast" shows small amounts across northern Arkansas Friday night with the most of towards the NE corner.  Even though it shows LR getting nothing, I still think a few flakes could fly.

The NAM shows very small amounts for the northern half of the state with the most across the northeast corner.  According to this model, there could be a couple inches up there.

The GFS I think has a very realistic look at what's going on.  Look at the minor amounts for central Arkansas.  The band of snow starts for north central areas with just small amounts and a bit more across the northeast.

Historic Blizzard/Snowstorm Wrap Up

This will be a very brief post.   As of the time I write this, my power is out.  This radar image shows where the heavy snow fell and the amounts here are preliminary.  The heavy snow band set up just north and northwest of Little Rock.

Thank you for getting your information here on the Arkansas Weather Blog and following me on facebook and twitter.  I can't thank each of you enough for trusting me and the Channel 7 weather team for your information. 

The numbers for those of you coming to the blog were the highest ever.  

Very preliminary

Historic Christmas Blizzard and Winter Storm

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I was born and raised here in Little Rock and I have never seen a blizzard warning for any county in the Channel 7 viewing area.  Today could turn out to be life threatening and historic at the same time.  The combination of heavy snow and high winds will reduce visibilities to a quarter mile or less late today.  We can also expect many power outages so please prepare for that.  The Blizzard warning includes all of White county northeastward and I'll post the map below.

Most of the state, including central Arkansas is under a winter storm warning including the metro.  Snowfall amounts have the possibility of exceeding 5'' in spots.

I still expect morning rain and sleet to give away to mid to late afternoon snow.  The snow will really become intense tonight across much of the state.  Again, I urge everyone especially in the "Blizzard Warning" area not to get out later today.  This can be life threatening if you're caught out in in.  Prepare for power outages.

Here's the watch/warning map from the NWS as of 6 AM.  Orange is the blizzard warning and pink is the winter storm warning.  Purple is a winter weather advisory.

The overnight run of the NAM goes crazy with snowfall amounts from Little Rock northeastward.  The legend is at the bottom of the picture.

And the 00Z GFS shows heavy snow amounts through western AR into central areas into the northeast.

In summary, the snowfall POTENTIAL in central Arkansas is for several inches of snow to start late today.  We COULD see 5'' or more in areas with high winds causing many power outages.  

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS

A Christmas Miracle... Snow?

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5:30 PM Monday update.  Below you will find the Channel 7 forecast for snow.  Even at this late stage in the game, this can still shift.  The trend with the modeling today is a shift to the south so it will have to be watched carefully with tonight's data.  I expect some rain and sleet in the morning as well, then the changeover to snow late in the day is still on schedule.   There will be a very, very sharp snowfall gradient.  This means there will be a short distance where the snow amounts will change drastically from nothing to several inches.  Where this sets up is difficult to pinpoint at this time.

Also, the other BIG story will be the wind!  If  you live in northern Arkansas, especially, the heavy snow and wind combined will cause power outages.  Be prepared for that Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.  

Check out the maps below.

Again, this is still subject to change, but this is our forecast at Channel 7.  The immediate metro area could see 1-3 with 3-5'' possible just to the north in northern and western Pulaski county up towards Conway.  Look how the amounts drop off the further south you live.  5-8'' or up to 10'' could fall across northern Arkansas.

This is the morning run of "Futurecast" indicating slightly higher amounts so this will have to be watched.  This is just a model though and we'll see if the southward shift continues.

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   10:40 AM Monday update... This is just a quick update with a quick glance at the new data.  The NAM has shifted south a little and so has the GFS in respect to snowfall amounts.  I'm not going to get indepth with this update, but I will show you the two models forecast for snow depth.  If the GFS is correct, we will have to add higher amounts of snowfall further south.  So yes, as I have said, this situation can change and indeed there's a high chance for that.  At the same time, I urge caution because I am concerned about surface temperatures being to warm in the metro.  However, if you get heavy wet snowflakes to fall, it will cool the air to near freezing.  Stay tuned for more updates.

The 12Z GFS snow depth off twisterdata.com shows very high amounts in excess of 8'' across the higher elevations of west central AR with another bullseye across the northeast section.  IF this is correct, central AR would have a VERY tight snowfall gradient, but this does show significant snow further south.

 

The NAM continues to hit northern AR with the highest amounts and a strong gradient just north of Little Rock.  So you see the differences and the possibilities here.

___________________________________________________________________

We know how rare it is to actually get snow to fall and accumulate Christmas day in Arkansas!   If it happens, it will be the first time in more than 80  in Little Rock.  Also,  if we get more than 2.5'', it will be the most ever on Christmas day in Little Rock weather history, HOWEVER, I will explain why this will be difficult to achieve.  Here are the past snow amounts in the metro.

1939) .1'' of snow

1926) 2.5'' of snow

1913) 1.5'' of snow

1897) 1'' of snow

Remember, we have had snow on the ground from a previous snow.  That happened in 2004.

As I have said, the focus for the heaviest snow will be northern Arkansas and the southern extent is in question in my mind.  

Let's talk about Little Rock which is obviously a major population center.  Once the changeover to snow occurs late Christmas day, temperatures will be above freezing.  It's possible to get accumulations, but the snow must come down at a high rate.  I have seen this time and time again.   The city COULD retain enough heat to limit accumulations within the heart of the metro, HOWEVER, just a few miles away from the city center into the higher elevations of west Little Rock or just north of the metro could see a nice coating and I think it's these areas could receive 1-2'' and IF we're lucky 3''.  

Please don't misunderstand me, I do think flakes will fly late Christmas, but accumulations will be more likely west and north of the city.  Southern Arkansas, I think you will see flakes fly at night, but amounts will be nothing to maybe a dusting.

The other big story will be the wind.  Look for sustained winds late Tuesday around 20-25 mph with gusts exceeding 30 mph.

Due to the track of the low, south of it will have the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak across portions of southern Mississippi into Alabama.  While we're watching snow, remember lives are threatened there.  This storm has the potential to be violent and we need to keep those people in our thoughts and prayers Tuesday.

Below are maps from the NAM which isn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but does convey what I think may happen. Also, my preliminary snowfall map.  I'll explain.

This can change between now and Tuesday, but this is my preliminary first map for snowfall.  Look how I have the immediate metro area out of accumulations, but just north and west of it could see 1-2'' and maybe 3''.  The best chance for heavy snow will be from near Mena to near Conway northward.  There will be the possibility to see isolated higher amounts which could exceed 6'', especially in the higher elevations.  AGAIN, THIS IS PRELIMINARY AND CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED.

This is the NAM valid at noon Christmas.  The green is the rain, orange is mix, and blue is snow.  Most of AR is covered up with rain with a mixture across the north.  It's snowing hard in Oklahoma.  Watch that red dashed line from north TX to Tulsa into southern Missouri.  That's a good indicator of the rain/snow line.  North is snow, south is ice or rain.

The cold core low is punching into AR here and the red dashed line is making a move into western AR by 6PM and the transition to all snow is occurring and probably happening further east and north than this model depicts.

By midnight, it's snowing across much of the northern half of the state an the cold air aloft is in place.  Surface temperatures are falling and winds are howling out of the north.  See those brown lines?  Those are isobars around the surface low which you can clearly see near Jackson, TN.  A strong north wind is blowing!  South Arkansas will have some light snow and flurries at this point, but the heaviest stuff is across the north.  By sunrise Wednesday, it's all out of here.

Here are the watches and warnings from the NWS.  Blue is the watch and pink is the warning.

The Track is EVERYTHING

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11:40 AM Sunday Update...  I just wanted to throw out the latest model data and a few thoughts roaming in my head.  First of all, I want to publicly let everyone know what an incredible wife I have.  Television weather is no longer an 8 hour a day job like it use to be.  Social media along with blogging make it a much longer day to stay on top of the situation and give you what you want, information.  I love doing it since this is not only my job, but my passion since I was 6 years old.  My wife is doing a lot of work around the house and taking care of the kids while I analyze and study what's happening with our forecast.  Just want to let you know that while I will have updates Monday and Tuesday, I will be off from work and spending time with my family.  This will be Preston's first Christmas and I want to celebrate it with him, Blake, and Andria.

Now onto the "weather" thoughts roaming in my head and there's plenty of room for that. LOL.  We really have not had true arctic air in here along with moisture in a very long time due to the mild winter last year.  We must remember a few principles that models will not handle well.  This is not a classic snow set up for Arkansas.  Usually, the cold air is in place when the moisture gets here and winds stay out of the east or northeast.  This is a case where the cold air comes in while the moisture is moving through.  You can still get ice and snow, but it's not classic and it's much more difficult to forecast.

You MUST remember the nature of arctic air.  It's cold, shallow, and very dry.  The true nature of it is usually not handled well by ANY computer model.  This dry, cold air is underestimated by the models.  Once we get into Christmas day, it will be important to look at the surface temperature and dewpoint and compare it to model data.  My gut tells me the models will be a few degrees too warm.  Rain falling into the layer of dry, cold air will undergo a process called "evaportational cooling".  Simply meaning, the rain will cool the air as it falls due to the dryness.  This has a tendency to lead to sleet or sleet and rain mixed.  That's something we MUST keep an eye on Christmas Day. 

Then later, as the colder air works in aloft, the transistion to snow COULD occur depending on what model you look at.  Once again, I will not go out on a limb right now due to the differences in the track stated in today's original blog post.  Please read that.  Some will be happy and others sad.  I continue to think northern Arkansas has the best chance for accumulating snow.  How much and where the axis of heavy snow is not fully understood until a track is determined.  I would rather wait and be right than jump the gun and be wrong.

Check out the maps below from the morning model runs.

This is Christmas morning at 6AM from the GFS.  Those small black lines are surface wind barbs.  They point to the direction from which the wind is coming from.  It's all east and northeast across the state.  See the "1036" at top.  That's a pressure reading around the high coming in from Canada.  That's the source of the cold, dry arctic air.  The air is flowing out of that southwestward into AR.  The colored contours are surface dewpoints.  This indicates they are in the 20s across the north half (white and gray).  This will lead to evaporational cooling at the onset of precipitation and temperatures will fall a few degrees when that happens.  The surface low is in west Texas with that black closed line.  We need that to dig south and east a little for a good snow.  We'll see if that happens.

HUGE model differences.  Here's the early morning run of the GFS snowfall amounts.  The heaviest is up north.

And here's the NAM.  Now do you see why the track is sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo important????  It's wayyyyyy north with nothing here in central AR.  I would rather wait and be right, but it looks like northern AR will take the brunt of whatever happens.  Stay tuned.

  
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I have held off on my own forecast for snow amounts for a reason and we are seeing why.  Even though we're just 2 days away from this snow/rain event, the models have different tracks.  This is a situation where a shift just a few miles means EVERYTHING.  Some will be happy and others will be very upset.  That's the bottom line.  No snow forecast will be absolutely perfect!  I continue to maintain as I always have that NORTHERN Arkansas has the best chance for accumulating snow.  Areas further south will still likely see SOME snow.  I'm very hesitant to put out amounts due to the differences  in the NAM vs the GFS.  The NAM is trending north with the track ever so slightly and it's enough to cause BIG forecast headaches.  This is why forecasting snow is so difficult.   We're trying to pinpoint the track of the center of low pressure to the exact position and any deviation from that track can mean the difference between 4 inches and NOTHING.

Here's what we're looking at this morning.

This is the Sunday morning run of the NAM valid Christmas at 6PM.  The surface low is moving through eastern AR and into MS.  This is north of all the other models.  The blue dashed line is the indicator for rain/snow, but not exactly. According to this, the heaviest snow is in northern OK into northern AR.  We could actually get "dry slotted in SW into central AR from this track.

This is the overnight run of the GFS valid at the same time.  The low is further east and a bit further south in eastern MS.  This SMALL difference makes a huge difference in what kind of weather we can expect.  This track brings the heaviest snow to central Arkansas.  

In summary, now you see why I'm hesitant to make a snow forecast.  Small differences in the track means everything.  All this will change some more so stay tuned.

Christmas Snow A Real Possibility

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The computer models continue to show rain changing to snow Christmas Day.  Right now, the data points to high temperatures being set early in the day and probably in the low to mid 40s.  Then as the colder air works in, the rain could change to a wintry mix then to snow late in the afternoon and into the evening across much of Arkansas.  The most favored areas right now are central and north, but southern Arkansas may have a chance too.  Another big story will be the wind and I think there could be sustained wind speeds around 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph with the gradient I see setting up.   I will make my preliminary snowfall amount map Sunday, but until then, I'll show you what the computer models are guessing.  We'll have a better sampling of the storm as it moves ashore and better data is available.  This will increase the computer models accuracy.

IT'S A LONG VIDEO, BUT PLEASE WATCH.  IT GOES VERY IN DEPTH!!!!

Christmas Day Snow?

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2PM Friday Update... Yes, the two main long range computer models continue to show rain changing to snow late Christmas Day in central Arkansas.  The National Weather Service in North Little Rock has an amazing statistic on their web page.  Little Rock has not had snow which accumulates on Christmas day in more than 70 years! They are NOT counting a trace.  Can you believe that streak COULD be broken?!?  Remember, they are saying snow ON Christmas day.  You may remember years like 2004 and 1983 when snow was on the ground from a PREVIOUS snow.  Here are the years and stats. below...

1939) .1'' of snow
1926) 2.5'' of snow
1913) 1.5'' of snow
1897) 1'' of snow

So if we get more than 2.5'' of snow on December 25th, it will be the most snow on Christmas in Little Rock weather history which begins in 1875.

Both the GFS and Euro point to accumulating snow, but the track of the low pressure is CRUCIAL in determining who gets what and how much.  That's why it's wayyyyyyyyy too early to pinpoint amounts at this point in time.  I don't want to disappoint anyone because some will be singing white Christmas and there's the possibility others won't.  Stay tuned!
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We are within that 3-5 day window so the computers are starting to come in line.  However, specifics can and will change between now and then.  I absolutely hate saying this because I know you get tired of it, but don't get excited yet, the data will continue to flip flop.

There are still questions as to where the area of low pressure tracks and the intensity of the cold air the system will have to work with.  Actually, let's be honest and remember someone already knows exactly what's going to happen and we're just trying to make educated guesses. 

I think it's safe to say at this point that the severe weather potential in Arkansas is very low due to the southern track of low.  If that comes back north, we'll have to revisit that, but right now that scenario looks quite low.

This is the European model by 6PM Christmas Day.  I think we're getting to the point where you understand what it's saying.  The surface low is over far western Mississippi.  Look at the precip (in greens to red) to the left of the blue dashed line.  That's moisture getting thrown into the cold air portion of the storm system and likely falling as something frozen.  The European here implies snow from the Red River of TX and OK right through the western half of the state.  As the low pulls away and the cold air comes it, this shows a change from rain to snow across the remainder of the state Christmas night into early Wednesday morning.

Here's the GFS at midnight on the 26th.  The low is east of AR (black closed line) and the precipitation is getting thrown back into the cold air which is advancing through Arkansas.  This implies snow for the about the northwestern half of the state with the transition occurring further east early Wednesday morning.

PLEASE TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT!!!!! I don't withhold information here on the Arkansas Weather Blog.  This is sooooooooooooo preliminary and will change..... guaranteed!  BUT the GFS 120 hour snowfall accumulation map looks promising and is agreeing with the Euro as to where the corridor of snow could fall.  This ONLY takes into account the beginning of the storm system and future model runs will encompass the entire event and I'll post that when available.

The European model shows almost the same corridor.  This is snowfall from 6PM to 9PM Christmas Day.

In summary, DON'T GET TOO EXCITED JUST YET!  However, this is the most promising snowfall on Christmas I have seen in years.  Only 1 person knows what will happen and we'll continue figure it out as we get closer.