Friday, December 21, 2012

Christmas Day Snow?


2PM Friday Update... Yes, the two main long range computer models continue to show rain changing to snow late Christmas Day in central Arkansas.  The National Weather Service in North Little Rock has an amazing statistic on their web page.  Little Rock has not had snow which accumulates on Christmas day in more than 70 years! They are NOT counting a trace.  Can you believe that streak COULD be broken?!?  Remember, they are saying snow ON Christmas day.  You may remember years like 2004 and 1983 when snow was on the ground from a PREVIOUS snow.  Here are the years and stats. below...

1939) .1'' of snow
1926) 2.5'' of snow
1913) 1.5'' of snow
1897) 1'' of snow

So if we get more than 2.5'' of snow on December 25th, it will be the most snow on Christmas in Little Rock weather history which begins in 1875.

Both the GFS and Euro point to accumulating snow, but the track of the low pressure is CRUCIAL in determining who gets what and how much.  That's why it's wayyyyyyyyy too early to pinpoint amounts at this point in time.  I don't want to disappoint anyone because some will be singing white Christmas and there's the possibility others won't.  Stay tuned!
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We are within that 3-5 day window so the computers are starting to come in line.  However, specifics can and will change between now and then.  I absolutely hate saying this because I know you get tired of it, but don't get excited yet, the data will continue to flip flop.

There are still questions as to where the area of low pressure tracks and the intensity of the cold air the system will have to work with.  Actually, let's be honest and remember someone already knows exactly what's going to happen and we're just trying to make educated guesses. 

I think it's safe to say at this point that the severe weather potential in Arkansas is very low due to the southern track of low.  If that comes back north, we'll have to revisit that, but right now that scenario looks quite low.

This is the European model by 6PM Christmas Day.  I think we're getting to the point where you understand what it's saying.  The surface low is over far western Mississippi.  Look at the precip (in greens to red) to the left of the blue dashed line.  That's moisture getting thrown into the cold air portion of the storm system and likely falling as something frozen.  The European here implies snow from the Red River of TX and OK right through the western half of the state.  As the low pulls away and the cold air comes it, this shows a change from rain to snow across the remainder of the state Christmas night into early Wednesday morning.
Here's the GFS at midnight on the 26th.  The low is east of AR (black closed line) and the precipitation is getting thrown back into the cold air which is advancing through Arkansas.  This implies snow for the about the northwestern half of the state with the transition occurring further east early Wednesday morning.
PLEASE TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT!!!!! I don't withhold information here on the Arkansas Weather Blog.  This is sooooooooooooo preliminary and will change..... guaranteed!  BUT the GFS 120 hour snowfall accumulation map looks promising and is agreeing with the Euro as to where the corridor of snow could fall.  This ONLY takes into account the beginning of the storm system and future model runs will encompass the entire event and I'll post that when available.
The European model shows almost the same corridor.  This is snowfall from 6PM to 9PM Christmas Day.

In summary, DON'T GET TOO EXCITED JUST YET!  However, this is the most promising snowfall on Christmas I have seen in years.  Only 1 person knows what will happen and we'll continue figure it out as we get closer. 

17 comments:

LeafHopper said...

Hi Everyone,
I miss SnowbirdBob. He has not been tweeting lately and I do not know why. Maybe the story is on Facebook somewhere (I am not on Facebook - I know - it is horrible; I still use my cell phone to talk to people as well).
If anyone knows the deal, maybe they could explain - or maybe others could weigh in and say they miss him too. He is one of the most colorful "characters" on this wonderful blog. I hope the models hold and the snow comes!!

Anonymous said...

I'll weigh in and say that I for one do not miss his inaccurate wishcasting. Todd made the right decision in choosing to kick him off the blog's twitter feed and blocking him.

Gusty Gal said...

I miss Snowbird, too! It's Christmas! He always brought hope to the blog! Thank goodness, accuracy isn't everything or who would be left in the weather business?! Merry Christmas and LET IT SNOW!

tboyce1979 said...

He has been on Facebook A LOT lately and I've been keeping up with him there. This whole thing is starting to get me giddy!!!

Anonymous said...

I agree with bringing SBB back. The guy likes to look at the long range and have some fun with winter weather. He os the first to admit things may not pan out and he could be wrong. The hatefulness towards him by certain folks lacked class and professionalism in my view and numerous others that view the blog.

Anonymous said...

Love my Todd and weatherninja, they are the VERY BEST, but I do miss Snowbird Bob's wish casting and his sense of humor on here. Atleast he let it be known he was a wishcaster!

Anonymous said...

Brought hope, only to disappoint those who don't know the nature of him.

LeafHopper said...

So is that why? Todd blocked him out?

Anonymous said...

You don't mean to tell me you folks doubt the intellect of Todd? Surely you don't mean to insinuate that he doesn't know the right decisions for his weather blog?

Anonymous said...

And for whoever likes long ranging:

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/280785873375723520/photo/1

Look at the date he predicted this. At that time, even Todd thought this was extremely bold for him to forecast snow for Arkansas. Now, that isn't so out of the question after all.

If anyone deserves credit for long range forecasting, it's big Joe himself.

Michael Hook said...

Hello everyone, just to clarify, SnowbirdBob has never been blocked off the blog. His twitter feed was removed from the twitter section. I won't go into that, but he knows that he can provide insight to winter weather events via comments. Those that follow him on twitter can continue to do so. Will SBB comment in this section? You will have to ask him but he has not been blocked or kicked off this blog.

He does have a facebook page and is currently working to build that audience. He puts out some nice videos on a as needed basis. You can still follow him on twitter as well.

He's been busy tracking this snow system for the last few days and who knows, maybe he'll chime in.

Just wanted you to know. Now...let's get that snow in here!

Michael Hook
aka The WeatherNinja

Anonymous said...

He wasn't blocked from the BLOG, but on twitter by Todd. After so much wish casting with inadequate reasoning, mentioning snow a couple weeks ago was the straw that broke the camel's back, I suppose. He'd had it by then.

Alan Jones said...

I miss having snowbirdbob's here... kept it fun. I did "like" his page on Facebook. I have noticed he does not seem to be as aggressive with his snow forecasts in the videos as he seems on Twitter.

For those interested hit him up on
https://www.facebook.com/Snowbirdbob


Hopefully this comment will get posted.

Alan

Snowbirdbob said...

Hello Everyone & Merry Christmas..I want to say something here..Some like me & some dont..I am who I am..Snowbirdbob"Wishcaster & Forecaster...I was never removed from the Blog..Just taken off the Blog Twitter Feed..I didnt need to be on that live feed..Because. People depend on those forecast..People that dont know me was take me to serious...I want to thank you all for the compliments..I enjoy doing this very much..If you want to hear me vent follow me on Twitter or on My FB Page..Snowbirdbob..I can vent on the comment section also..Ok, Now with the Forcast..I see a Low Track form Houston,TX-Baton Rouge,LA-Jackson,MS-Nashville,TN..I think Central & Southern Ark will see the Heavyest Snowfall 3-6 Locally 8 Inches..Thank You Ninja for clarifying the problem..I will be back on here more Often!!

Thank You All
Keep Your Faith & Hope Alive!

Bob Read AKA Snowbirdbob

LeafHopper said...

I am the primary weather geek at my workplace of highly technical scientific professionals. We understand the value of conservative accuracy. But when my co-workers ask me about the Blog, the do not ask what Todd, WeatherNinja, and others are saying - they always ask "What is SBB saying now??!!" (the warm weather people love to hate on him). Maybe it is for the best, but it just made it a little more fun, that's all.

Anonymous said...

We have a storm coming. Let's get past the reality show drama and talk some snow.

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-I'm remembering white Christmases past and of course I remember more than most on this blog because of the number of trips for me around the sun. 1962,1963,1975,1983,1990,and 2004. All of these were white for me because of living in the higher elevations of Little Rock. I know the NWS doesn't recognize two of these,1975 and 1990. In 1975 I was 33 years old and remember sitting at my mother's dining room table watching huge snowflakes drifting down as we ate our Christmas dinner.We enjoyed seeing the ground white before we finished eating. 1990 was when we had a heavy sleet and snow event on the 22nd with lightning and thunder and the ground was white on Christmas day. I say bring it, but everybody be safe.