2PM Friday Update... Yes, the two main long range computer models continue to show rain changing to snow late Christmas Day in central Arkansas. The National Weather Service in North Little Rock has an amazing statistic on their web page. Little Rock has not had snow which accumulates on Christmas day in more than 70 years! They are NOT counting a trace. Can you believe that streak COULD be broken?!? Remember, they are saying snow ON Christmas day. You may remember years like 2004 and 1983 when snow was on the ground from a PREVIOUS snow. Here are the years and stats. below...
1939) .1'' of snow
1926) 2.5'' of snow
1913) 1.5'' of snow
1897) 1'' of snow
So if we get more than 2.5'' of snow on December 25th, it will be the most snow on Christmas in Little Rock weather history which begins in 1875.
Both the GFS and Euro point to accumulating snow, but the track of the low pressure is CRUCIAL in determining who gets what and how much. That's why it's wayyyyyyyyy too early to pinpoint amounts at this point in time. I don't want to disappoint anyone because some will be singing white Christmas and there's the possibility others won't. Stay tuned!
We are within that 3-5 day window so the computers are starting to come in line. However, specifics can and will change between now and then. I absolutely hate saying this because I know you get tired of it, but don't get excited yet, the data will continue to flip flop.
There are still questions as to where the area of low pressure tracks and the intensity of the cold air the system will have to work with. Actually, let's be honest and remember someone already knows exactly what's going to happen and we're just trying to make educated guesses.
I think it's safe to say at this point that the severe weather potential in Arkansas is very low due to the southern track of low. If that comes back north, we'll have to revisit that, but right now that scenario looks quite low.
|The European model shows almost the same corridor. This is snowfall from 6PM to 9PM Christmas Day.|