Transitioning from very mild to colder weather can come at a price unfortunately. This ride may get a little bumpy this afternoon and evening as the cold front plows through the state. I expect showers and thunderstorms to develop and eventually form into a line. I still think wind and hail will be the main threat, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. The amount of instability will depend on cloud cover today. The more clouds the better. This will help minimize the severe potential. We must watch any individual cells that develop and any storms which form ahead of the main line. Like I said, the tornado threat is low, BUT it is there.
I expect the front to move through central Arkansas early this evening putting an end to our severe weather threat. The winds will howl out of the north at speeds around 15-20 mph with higher gusts. Temperatures will not get out of the 30s across northern Arkansas Monday and will hover in the low to mid 40s central and south. Overnight lows Tuesday and Wednesday morning will easily drop into the teens and 20s statewide making this air mass the coldest so far this season.
Now what about the much talked about snow? I really wish I could get excited about those chances. You know me, I LOVE snow and cold air! However, the ONLY model which indicated that chance has backed off of it significantly with the latest couple of model runs. Of course this can still change, but it's lining up with the other models that say no to snow. HOWEVER, I still think we will get reports of early morning sleet and snow flurries/showers especially north and east of the metro. As I have said all along, this shouldn't be a big deal. The set up is just not ideal for anything significant. Temperatures will be above freezing. Ground temperatures will be warm and the ground will be wet from the recent rainfall. Hard to get anything to accumulate with those conditions. Like I said, don't be surprised to see a few sleet pellets or snow flurries. I hope it puts you in the Holiday spirit. You will know when a chance for real snow occurs. I'll go nuts here on the blog. LOL
Here's simulated radar from the hi res NAM.
|At 1PM this afternoon, the NAM indicates storms developing in southwest to central Arkansas. At this time the front is in northwest Arkansas with temperatures there falling through the 40s. It's mild and muggy everywhere else.|
|The SPC indicates the slight risk for sever weather in yellow later today into the evening.|