Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Christmas Day.. Rain, Storms, Or Snow?
1PM Tuesday Update... As I have said, there's only 1 person who knows what will happen next week. To hang your hat on 1 run of a particular computer model is sophomoric. Here's what we do know, there will be a system coming through right around Christmas, but how it impacts our weather is not known. We'll have to wait until we get into the 3-5 day window to get a better handle. As I have said, this is not an ideal set up for snow in Arkansas at this point. The models are pointing to more of a heavy rain/storm scanario with some snow on the back end possible. We'll see. Read the Monday morning and Tuesday AM posts below for more on that.
I want to show you how crazy and inconsistent the models are at this point (7 days out). Below you will see back to back runs of the Euro at the same time, Christmas morning.
When you have such a huge interest in a long range forecast, it's important to continue to remind everyone how much can change with the computer models this far in advance. What kind of weather we will have next Tuesday and Wednesday is ONLY known by 1 person and it's not me. As a matter of fact we're celebrating his birth next Tuesday! Anyway, the computer models are guessing and guessing again and again. Some 2 times a day and others 4 times a day. Each solution is slightly or greatly different than the previous one.
In the world of weather forecasting, we have to wait to get within 3-5 days to have a good sense of what will unfold. When I looked at the data this morning (7-8 days away) it screamed HEAVY RAIN! If you look at my previous blog post, I have maintained this is NOT an ideal set up for significant snow in Arkansas. The ONLY way to get flakes flying is on the back side with the upper level low. These can produce accumulating snows, but they usually don't produce much. You also have to take into account that IF there's heavy rain, there will be a warm and wet ground and that's even harder to get snow to accumulate onto.
The timing and speed of the storm system is still in question as well. The data suggests Christmas Day will be a soaker and thunderstorms will be possible as well. IF there's any change over to snow, it won't be until very, very late Christmas Day into Wednesday the 26th. Again, IF that occurs, it would take place from west to east across the state as the colder air comes in with left over moisture.
Here are the maps below.
In summary, another day and another round of model solutions. Timing and impact are all different. Let's keep watching it and wait until we get to within that 3-5 day window to have some clarity on the situation.
Posted by Todd Yakoubian on Tuesday, December 18, 2012