Saturday, December 15, 2012
Next Week and Into Christmas
This is the time of year I get frustrated with Mother Nature. You can expect hot weather every summer, but it seems so tough to get true cold weather in the winter. Last winter was horrible for snow lovers and I think we're all on the verge of throwing in the towel this winter, but we have to remember, it's still mid December. There's plenty of winter in front of us!
Half way through the month, it's the 2nd warmest December in terms of average high temperature, average low temperature, and average monthly temperature. While this could change by the end of the month, there are no signs of true cold air that sticks around. I'll explain below.
Just looking at the forecast over the next 7 days here are my thoughts and the things that stand out.
First, near record breaking temperatures this afternoon (Saturday) and Sunday. While we most likely will not achieve the 78 degree record high Sunday set in 1924, it will be within a few degrees.
Next, the cold front coming through dropping temperatures Monday and Tuesday will take temperatures down, but they will stay above average. This will only keep us on track for one of the warmest Decembers on record.
Next, a strong area of low pressure will develop to our west around mid week. The air mass ahead of this feature will be able to warm significantly IF we keep low clouds away. Right now the models have us in the mid and upper 60s, BUT I think temperatures will have the potential to rise into he 70s! The record Wednesday is 74 in 1978 and it will be challenged in my opinion.
Rain and storms will accompany the front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The modeling shows readings only dropping into the low to mid 50s behind it, but I think there's the potential to have highs in the upper 40s behind it with windy conditions too. In my opinion.... BIG DEAL! sarcasm noted here. Remember, the average high is in the low 50s so that's where we should be this time of year! The Euro seems more impressive with the shot of colder air, but only time will tell.
So what about after that? That air mass should behave like all the others.... in and out. It has no holding power. UGGHHHHH. That takes us to Christmas which is still very much in the long term. As of today, I have taken the chance for a white Christmas down to a 5% chance in Little Rock due to the nature of the pattern. I have maps below to back up my thoughts, which I hope are wrong. You won't hear a weatherman say that often eh? BRING ON THE COLD MOM NATURE! sigh.
Posted by Todd Yakoubian on Saturday, December 15, 2012