Wednesday, December 12, 2012

The Trend Is Not Our Friend


11 AM Thursday update.... Basically what the computer models are saying about wintry weather chances next week.... FORGETABOUTIT .  uggghhhhhhh Stay tuned.  I'll keep you updated if anything changes.

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I told ya these models will flip flop all over the place before we get to next Monday/Tuesday.  The last couple runs of the American model, GFS, has trended drier as it shows less moisture to work with.  However, the Euro still shows some wrap around moisture across northern Arkansas Tuesday, but even this model is less aggressive with the moisture, but it still shows some light snow across northern Arkansas.  Notice with both of the models I have below show a north to south wind across the state.  This is NOT favorable for any significant snow in our area.  Usually our best snows come when the surface winds are out of the east or the northeast.

It  has been my experience with more than a decade of forecasting that these models will flip again and again and again.  This is why I urge you not to get your hopes up.  Just know there's a system coming through next week that has the capability to produce some snow.  It doesn't mean that's going to happen.  Every year I want to make it clear the purpose of this blog is to give you a glimpse into what we look at when forecasting... the possibilities.  Let's all hope the models start looking like they did Tuesday.

The overnight run of the Euro valid Tuesday morning at 6AM shows some light precipitation over northern Arkansas.  If surface temperatures are supportive, it would be in the form of snow.  The surface low is east of Arkansas.  Look at the black lines running north to south through the state.  This is a cold north wind blowing!  That is NOT favorable for anything significant moisture wise!  For our best snows, surface winds should be out of the NE or East.
The GFS now shows NOTHING in Arkansas Tuesday morning and takes the system well east.  It's still colder!  Look at the north to south surface flow pushing chilly temperatures back into the state.  Again, with a north wind at the surface, it's not favorable for anything significant.

1 comment:

Will said...

Hey Todd, What about the two most recent runs of the EURO as well as the GFS. They both appear to be looking at a possible Christmas present. Any thoughts on that yet are you going to be the snow miser for now?

It's about time for the SnowBird to give us his take. Talk to us Bob!!