Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Something Interesting Brewing Next Week?
12:45 PM Tuesday Update... I don't want to get into the habit of posting every single model run, but I will today just to show you the consistency between the two major long term models I like to use when forecasting. Remember though, these always change as we get closer to the actual event. Sometimes it's for the better and sometimes it dashes the dreams of snow lovers.
I'm like a kid in a candy store this time of year when the computers start cranking out patterns like the one we're going into, especially at Christmas time. Remember, we live in Arkansas and snow is hard to come by. Just stay tuned and hope for the best. Don't get excited about next Tuesday until we get to the end of this week. That's when things get clearer.
Here's the new run of the European model valid next Tuesday at noon.
11:10 AM Tuesday Update... The GFS just came in and it continues to show rain changing to snow Tuesday morning next week. The Euro actually shows the same thing, but it's slower with the upper level energy and the infusion of cold air. The Euro last night shows that transition to wintry weather Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what the new Euro shows this afternoon. Here are a couple of maps from the new GFS...
You know I don't like to go into the long term, but there are a couple reasons I'm going to throw this out there: Both the GFS and Euro show it and there's some consistency. The details can't be trusted and the timing is in question, but there will be a very interesting system to watch in the Monday through Wednesday time frame of next week. This is NOT an ideal set up for major wintry weather, but it needs to be watched. Right now, it appears a surface low will develop near or just east of the state. As cold air gets infused into the system, rain could change to some sort of wintry weather as the system lifts away. Again, this has all the makings of a major model flip flop so DON'T get excited just yet. As we get closer, we can fine tune the details. At least we have an active pattern now unlike the past few weeks. This could turn out to be fun, nothing, or just rain.
Here are the model maps....
With that said, all of this will change and flip flop all over the place. Just like the last system that came through Monday, we didn't call for 4 inches of snow when we saw the NAM because we understood models can be completely wrong. Turns out our ideas were in touch with reality. It showed us where it would most likely snow/sleet, but we didn't buy into the amounts due to obvious reasons... warm temps at the surface and ground.
Applying those forecasting principles here, we know there's a storm next week. The details can't be trusted on either of the major models, but it will be fun to watch! I'll keep you updated here, on twitter, and on my facebook page.
Posted by Todd Yakoubian on Tuesday, December 11, 2012