A Whole Lot Of Nothing?

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN

TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

It's Friday and the data continues to struggle to settle on a solution in regards to next week.  There's the GFS which is mostly cold and DRY.  The European model shows additional waves of moisture with cold air in place.  It's important to note here that IF the European model is correct, any additional moisture would be light and we're NOT talking about any major storm at this point.  Of course, I have very little trust in the data, but that's what it shows today.  With that said, a little ice and snow can cause concerns.  Personally, I don't want the ice.  I would much, much rather have snowfall.  For all of you snow lovers out there, don't get upset.  There's still a ton of winter in front of us.

Here are the maps.

While there will be a chance for a brief change over across northwest Arkansas to a wintry mix late Saturday into Sunday morning, look at the newest GFS valid at 3 PM Sunday.  All of the moisture is east of the Mississippi River.   After a very mild Friday and Saturday, temperatures are tumbling according to this as high pressure brings in north to northeasterly winds.

By late Monday, there will be additional waves of moisture according to the GFS, but it's all east of Arkansas.  It's cold and dry here.

The European model at 6PM Sunday shows precip. lingering across eastern Arkansas longer than the GFS.  The western fringe of this could be a light wintry mix if this verifies, but no major storm at all.

Here are the real differences.  This is the Euro at noon Monday.  Look at the additional wave of moisture moving through central and southern Arkansas.  This is much further to the west compared to the GFS.  IF this verifies, it's nothing too heavy and not a major storm, but it would be a light wintry mix on the northern fringe.

Here's another difference between the two major long range models.  The Euro late next Thursday continues to bring the upper low across the state with precipitation.  This is warmer compared to yesterday's run, but it still has the storm.  The GFS.... NOTHING.

The bigger story at this point looks to be the excessive rainfall.  HPC is projecting more than 3 inches across much of the state Saturday into Sunday.  With the ground already saturated, localized flooding could be a concern.

In summary, despite the differences in the two long range models, the picture is a little clearer in 1 regard.  According to this latest round of data, IF we get anything frozen, it will not be a major storm.  Remember though, a little ice can cause driving problems however.  If anything changes, I'll let you know.