Told ya this weather would get active and present challenges. With extensive cloud cover Saturday, Little Rock managed to hit the mid 70s and that's close to a record high. Can you imagine if we had some sun? Temperatures would have likely soared to 80. Amazing stuff considering the air heading our way for the next few days. Temperature highs will likely drop 30-35 degrees.
Now onto the precipitation challenges. At this time, I still don't think any major ice or snow storm will affect Arkansas. However, as we all know, it does not take much frozen precipitation to cause problems on the roads. I'll explain all the chances below using the European model and the North American Model (NAM)
Also, I tweeted an image of the Canadian model Friday. It was valid 10 days down the road. I thought it had lost its mind forecasting the dramatic plunge of arctic air. While such an EXTREME solution may be unlikely, it may be onto something. Remember the stratospheric warming event I blogged about a week or so ago? Well the lag time between that and having an effect on our weather would give the Canadian model some credibility. Also, the American GFS and the European model also show an arctic intrusion into the United States. I'll explain it all in the maps below.
|Again, it 's more of the same just 24 hours later at noon Tuesday. It's southeastern Arkansas which stands a chance for some precipitation.|
|In my opinion, the NAM has been horrible this winter, but I thought I would show this to you valid Tuesday at 3 PM. The precipitation shield is further north into central Arkansas. This COULD be a little icy, but other models keep us dry.|