2PM Monday Update... Remember, please don't panic and please read this entire blog that I started early this morning. This is just one model that shows something interesting Sunday, but I wanted to show you the things I look at. Other models just show a cold rain.
Look at what I'm talking about when it comes to shallow arctic air. The American GFS continues to indicate another wave of moisture most of Sunday where most previous runs of the Euro do not. HOWEVER, the new Euro does show additional light rain moving into the southern half of the state Sunday afternoon so it may be the start of a trend with that model. If you look at the surface temperatures with the European model valid next Sunday, most of the state is ABOVE freezing where the GFS brings much colder air into the state at low levels. So we have a fight on our hands. Will it be plain rain or something else. Here are a few maps below explaining the situation.
10:30 AM Monday Update... Here's a quick video update showing you the newest GFS just in this morning. PLEASE READ THE FULL POST BELOW. This is just 1 computer model and it's very much in the long range, but I wanted to show you the things I'm keeping an eye on for you.
For those of you who have been coming to the blog over the past few years, you know the purpose of it. It's not to necessarily make an official forecast, but to show you some of the data meteorologists must look into when we sit down to make that forecast. There are things we must consider and place in the forecast and other things we just simply ignore because we know it's garbage. I have always intended this blog to give you that inside look at how we "make the sausage".
In light of the historic Christmas storm, we must be very careful with what we put out there because we do NOT want to cause any unnecessary panic. When a quarter of a million people lose electricity and sustain damage to their home and property, the mention of more winter weather can stir anxiety. For others, according to the poll on the right side, they want MORE snow! I lost power for 3 days and I still want more snow. I DON'T WANT ICE! Remember what I said about the Christmas storm, 10 inches of snow doesn't cause devastation. Heavy ice, 10 inches of snow, and high winds WILL cause devastation. Add into the mix weakened trees from the historic summer drought and it was the perfect storm for power outages.
With all that said, I'm not going to stop showing you the things I'm looking at on the computer models.
It's important to note here the vast differences in the long range data. It really is the GFS vs the Euro next weekend. One will be right or there could be a compromise between the two. It's also important to tell you to relax, this could turn out to be a bunch of nothing. Or it COULD turn out to be more winter weather. IF that happens, at this time, I DON'T see anything as powerful as the Christmas storm.
First of all, I think I have gotten the message out there about the potential for heavy rain Wednesday. There could be a few thunderstorms as well. At this time, the severe potential looks very low, but it's worthy of watching as we get closer to mid week. The highest threat for severe storms will exist south of Arkansas.
Now onto the model data for next weekend. After the mid week system exits, I fully expect well ABOVE average temperatures until a powerful cold front arrives late Saturday. This should bring temperatures back below average next week.
The differences exist next Sunday. It looks like the GFS is hanging a piece of energy back and developing an additional wave of low pressure along the arctic boundary once it's past Arkansas. With the exception of a couple model runs, the GFS is consistent in throwing a few hours of precipitation back into the colder air. IF this were to verify, it could be frozen depending on how intense the low level air is behind the front. The Euro simply moves the front threw here with little if any frozen precipitation behind it. Here's the data.
|The Euro at the same time is much less gung ho about it.|
|And here's the Euro at the same time, there's less development and this is more progressive moving to the east.|