8:40AM Monday Update... This is just a quick update to show you how bad the NAM is right now. This model is run 4 times a day. Look at the difference between the Monday night run of the model compared to the Tuesday morning run. This is valid at the same time, Thursday morning at 6AM.
It's back to blogging! Hope you all had a great weekend. I just took a few days off work and really enjoyed it with great friends and family.
The cold arctic air I was talking about for the past week is here! As I cautioned you, where it would be directed was a question and it took aim on areas north and east of us. Wind chill readings in MN and ND approached -50! We're going to have a roller coaster over the next few days with a very important system to watch by the middle of next week. Some computer model guidance suggests this could come through harmlessly while others show a round of strong storms. This being 7-8 days away, we'll fine tune that forecast as we get closer, but pay attention to the 29th and 30th!
Some long term forecasting gurus are shouting about a cold and stormy February for much of the central and eastern United States. While their reasoning is deeply rooted in evidence and science, remember we're dealing with mother nature. Let's see how this unfolds and keep a close eye on it. There's a good chance they will be right, but you know how I feel about long term forecast (past 7-10 day).
Now onto the situation Thursday night into Friday morning. Let's just throw out the NAM. I haven't even looked at it this morning. It has been in la la land all winter and it continues to amaze me people are still using it this season for their forecasts. The ONLY way I'll ever do that is if it agrees with the GFS and/or Euro. Also, the NAM seems to catch onto things once within 24 hours. That's pathetic.
Yesterday, it took the surface low Thursday wayyyy north and no other piece of data shows that. The Euro shows a surface low sliding east through the state late Thursday with surface winds staying east-northeast across northern Arkansas and surface temperatures around freezing. The amount of frozen precip isn't much, but we all know that it doesn't take much to cause problems.
Here are the maps.
|It's exiting Friday morning and the freezing line stays almost in the same place as precip moves through.|
|I called attention to this situation via twitter Monday and now the HPC has shifted the area where ice is possible further south. This map shows you the chance for at least .01'' of freezing rain is greater than 50% across northern Arkansas.|