Thursday, January 17, 2013

Snow-My-Gosh!

WINTER CONTEST NUMBERS ARE UPDATED.

7:15 AM Friday Update....  I didn't want to start a whole new post since this one will be short and I wanted to keep that graph up below.  I hope you find those statistics as amazing as I do.  Just think of the potential with several years left in this decade.  I know a lot of people feel the same way I do when we reminisce about growing up in the 1980s.  We all remember how much more it snowed back then.  We'll, it looks like those memories could become reality again if this keeps up.

The weather over the next several days will be quiet, but a parade of cold fronts in a northwesterly flow will prevent any huge warm up.  Once temperatures do get up towards 60, another cold front will knock them down again.  A northwesterly flow is usually quite dry.  At this time, it looks like the coldest air mass will be directed northeast of the state.  With that said, I still think the models are a bit too warm at the beginning of next week.  These are strong highs coming down and as usual, the models just don't see it until it's here.  However, I think they will only be off a few degree.  Bottom line, we've seen colder already this winter so this won't be unusual.

The is 500mb Geopotential heights from the GFS valid Monday morning.  Look at the large vortex spinning near Hudson Bay.  Also, there is ridging along the west coast.  The circulation around these features will drive a series of cold air masses south with the northwesterly flow.  It's a parade of fronts!  Most of the real cold air will be directed northeast of Arkansas.  Once again, I'm not expecting any frigid airmass at this time, but it will be chilly from time to time with warm ups ahead of each boundary which comes through.
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It's time to step back a little and look at the overall picture.  I had a great conversation with meteorologist Brian Smith at the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock and he brought to my attention some remarkable data.

If you look at snowfall in Little Rock by decade, we see some amazing things going on.  Just since 2010 to the present, Little Rock has 35.5 inches of snow.  This period of 3 years and a month has already produced MORE snow than the ENTIRE decade of the 1900s, 1930s, 1950s, 1990s, and 2000s!   Just in the matter of 8 hours Christmas day into the 26th, we had almost 70% of the total snow of the 1990sWith 35.5'' of snow so far this decade, we're on track to have the  snowiest decade since the 1960s!  I don't think we'll ever break that record of 90.5 inches, but records were made to be broken, right?

I'll have more about the weather soon.  But briefly, that upper level low we have been tracking did produce some light snow in far southeast Arkansas last night, but it's Mississippi and Alabama getting a rare snow today.  Temperatures are going to swing upwards over the next few days.  Another strong cold front will come through at the beginning of next week.  I think the models are too high with readings behind the front.  I think we'll have highs in the 30s with lows in the teens.  Nothing we haven't already experienced.  This shot of cold air is quick and we'll begin to warm up, then another shot of cold air will arrive.  The flow is northwesterly aloft so it looks mostly dry.  More on that later, check out this graph.  Again, thanks to Brian Smith for telling me about this!


7 comments:

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-

I believe like you that records are made to be broken and sometimes shattered. I went out on a limb (for me) and said a few years ago that the winter of 2013-14 would be the winter to be remembered in the current 6 year cycle. I think that is the winter we will have either snowfall much above normal or single digits and below or both. I will go out on another limb and predict that in this decade with the winter ending 2019-2020 we will break or shatter both the single winter and the decade snowfall record. Also, throw in will break the all time snow depth record of 15 inches for LR.

Anonymous said...

Based on Todd's past few posts, looks like he's really busted on this cold air that was supposed to come next week.

Todd Yakoubian said...

Not sure if I would call it "busted", but definitely not as cold as I originally thought. I still think temps will be well below average for a couple days, but nothing we haven't seen. That's weather for ya.

Will said...

Well it was a bust for me 'cause I certainly thought the cold was coming this week. It's going to be cold but definitely not what I was thinking based upon my limited understanding of long range modeling information but as Todd says, "That's weather for ya" and he's the guy that gets paid to go out on that limb. I still think we are in for a significant "cold spell", it may be just a bit later than originally thought. The cold that I thought was coming this week is going to the Northeast where they are going to be quite cold this week. I believe that our cold is currently reloading up in the Arctic and should be aimed a little more west this time so hopefully we'll get this batch for the week of 1/27. Maybe a litte precipitation to go with it too......

Where 'O where is SnowBirdBob....... We are needing some of his magic to get some more winter.

Anonymous said...

The blog has been quiet and so has the twitter feed weather wise. Is there no hope of any active winter weather in the foreseeable future?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, I feel that Todd's really busted. Temps "well below average" for a couple days isn't even playing out. 46 being the high Tuesday, the average high is around 51 I believe?

It's ok, happens to the best of the weathermen.

Todd Yakoubian said...

It will be colder than 46 Tuesday!