Monday, January 28, 2013

Tuesday Trouble Specifics


When you go outside today and feel the air, you know something is up with our weather.  It doesn't get into the 60s and 70s with a ton of moisture in late January without something happening.

I still expect a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to roll through portions of Arkansas.  The main threats will be very heavy rainfall and high winds.  The tornado threat is there, but could be limited due to insufficient instability.   If more of this develops throughout the day, then the tornado threat will increase.  There is at least some concern for any cells that can develop ahead of the main line.  Those are the most likely to rotate.  Also, there could be some isolated instances where rotation occurs along the main line, but like I said, wind and rain will be the main threat.

I mentioned this on the blog Sunday, on the air, and I'll show it to you again today.  With high winds, the dangling trees and limbs from the Christmas Day storm COULD increase the number of power outages.  Also, someone could get seriously injured or killed by a weakened tree falling.  It's a real concern.

Below are specific rainfall amounts from the various models plus 1 computer models interpretation of the timing of this event.  Remember, this will NOT be perfect, but it does give you at least a general idea.

I saw this in someones yard.  Look at the entire tree snapped in half and just laying there on another tree.  Strong thunderstorm winds could easily take this down.   Again, this is a lingering effect of the Christmas day storm.
Yet, another example in west Little Rock of a tree laying on top of a line just inches from the road.
The hi res NAM at 6PM Tuesday shows a line of storms moving out of OK and into western AR. Any cells in front of this will need to be monitored.  A SOLID line is more conducive to a high wind/heavy rain threat.
This is simulated radar from the NAM at 9PM Tuesday.  It shows a solid line of storms marching into central AR.  Some models are faster than this.  There could be embedded areas along this line where rotation develops, but for the most part, it's a damaging wind threat.
By midnight Wednesday, the line is almost to the MS River.
The 00Z version of the NAM shows a swath of high rain amounts just west and north of Little Rock.  This indicates 2''+ will be possible there.  However, if cells train over the same areas, amounts will be higher.
The GFS shows almost the exact same area getting the highest amount of rainfall.
HPC manual progs show that swath of 2'' or more from SW AR up to the AR River Valley into NE Arkansas.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed ALL of AR in a slight risk Tuesday.  The main effects will be late in the day.
In summary, as I have said, the main threat will be heavy rain and wind.  Those hazards could be enhanced due to lingering effect of the Christmas day storm.  The tornado threat remains low, but could be elevated depending on how much instability is present.  Stay tuned and alert.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The tree leaning on another tree...loggers call that a widow maker.

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