The 2012-2013 Winter Weather Contest here on the Arkansas Weather Blog will likely go down to the wire. The leader board has changed again with a total snow accumulation between Little Rock, North Little Rock, Harrison, and Hot Springs at 31.3 inches. For the tiebreaker, the total rainfall between Little Rock and North Little Rock this winter season is at 27.32 inches. Right now, Mitzi McCoy is atop the leaders board, but that COULD still change! This will be one of the most interesting endings to a contest we have ever seen on the blog!
This winter will likely end on a wild note. Remember, in the meteorological world, the winter season is defined by the period from Dec. 1st to Feb. 28th. We can always get snow in March and I think this year that's on the table due to the look of the pattern during the first few days of the month. I'm watching several systems over the next 7 days so here we go.
The first one arrives Saturday. This appears to be very minor. At the 500 mb level, the shortwave looks vigorous and I'm a little surprised the computer models are cranking out little if any precipitation with it. This is likely due to the lack of moisture with the system, but I would not be surprised to hear a report or two of snow flurries, sprinkles, or very light sleet especially over western Arkansas Saturday. Again, very minor.
The next system arrives Monday, then another Wednesday. There are differences between all the models of course and I'll show you some of the data below.
|The overnight run of the GFS also indicates a wave of moisture moving in Wednesday. Notice how far south the blue dashed line is! If surface temperatures are cold enough, it could be frozen.|