Sunday, February 10, 2013

Tuesday Trouble Update

I'm keeping a close eye on 3 computer models and how they are handling the situation Tuesday: the Euro, GFS, and the NAM.  I think it's extremely important to look back at how each has performed this winter as a guide for forecasting any wintry weather.  There's no denying the Euro has been incredible in the short and medium range.  The GFS, not bad, but not great.  The NAM, HORRIBLE.

As you know, I absolutely love snow as long as the power stays on. LOL.  It would be easy to "wishcast" and go by the NAM and the GFS which is calling for more moisture than the Euro.  However, I just can't ignore what it's saying and for snow lovers, we can just hope that it comes around to the other solutions.

This would be a much different situation if cold air was already in place as the system moves into the region, but it's not.   The upper level low will have to be strong enough to cool the atmosphere enough all the way to the surface to produce snow and the most likely place for this to happen will be western and northern Arkansas.

I expect rain showers Tuesday with highs only in the mid 40s with slowly falling temperatures.  If there's a changeover to snow, it will not happen until late in the afternoon and evening hours.  

This can of course still change depending upon the strength of the upper level system and its track so stay tuned.

This is the Euro snowfall accumulation.  Again, this model has been great this winter and it shows NO accumulations.  I still think there could be flakes falling, but according to this model, it doesn't stick.
The NAM is a different story.  Again, this model has been very unreliable this winter, but it does show some accumulation across western and northern Arkansas.  At one point it's going to get something right, but I don't think the time is now.
And the GFS shows almost the same thing as the NAM, the best chance will be north and west.

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