Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Spring Brakes and Could Break Records

Last weekend I first told you about this possibility and I raised a few questions about how cold it may actually get.  I'll be honest with you,  I still have them.  There will be 3 factors to watch which COULD prevent us from breaking record low temperatures.  If we're going to have such a wild and crazy pattern deliver cold air, we might as well break the records while we're here.

The data continues to disagree as to where this low ends up.  The Euro (my favorite model) has been inconsistent with its placement.  The GFS has actually been consistent with the placement right around Arkansas.  However, no matter how you slice it or dice it, it's going to get cool. 

Here are the three things I'll be watching: clouds, wind, and precipitation.  If any of these are around at night, it will limit the temperature from falling to record levels.  Like I said in the previous post, these three factors will also keep daytime highs 15-20 degrees below average. 

Let's look at the records here...

Friday May 3rd records:
Coldest high temperature 52 degrees set in 1994
Low temperature 41 degrees in 1929

Saturday May 4th records:
Coldest high temperature 53 degrees set in 1935 and 1907
Low temperature 40 degrees set in 1971

Sunday May 5th records:
Coldest high temperature 56 set in 1935
Low temperature 43 set in 1945

Top 10 coldest May temperatures in Little Rock
  1. May 1, 1903 39 degrees
  2. May 4, 1971 40 degrees
  3. May 2, 1963 40 degrees
  4. May 12, 1960 40 degrees
  5. May 2, 1909 40 degrees
  6. May 2, 1994 41 degrees
  7. May 9, 1976 41 degrees
  8. May 1, 1963 41 degrees
  9. May 3, 1929 41 degrees
The one I'll really be watching is Saturday morning.  I think that's when we'll have the best potential hit 39 degrees or colder which would be the coldest temperature ever recorded in Little Rock weather history dating back to the 1870s.

Let's put this into perspective.  That record is May 1, 1903!!!!!! 

  • The President of the United States was Theodore Roosevelt
  •  Pepsi company formed
  •  Niagera Falls runs out of water because of a drought
  •  Wright Brothers make 1st flight at Kittyhawk
  • Loaf of bread was 4 cents
  • Milk was 2 cents a gallon
  • A stamp was 2 cents
  • The average cost of a home was 4,000 dollars
Now let's look at the model data.  These maps come from weatherbell.com.   It's a great site and if you're a BIG weather geek like me, It's worth subscribing.  TONS of great model information!!!!!

You may want to click to enlarge.  The Euro Friday morning shows lows around 40 in central Arkansas and it could go below freezing across western and northern Arkansas.  This model also has the cut off low further north, but still brings the cold south.
This is the GFS Friday morning and it's not as fast bringing the cold air eastward, but it's still definitely here.  It's not quite as cold as the Euro at this point though with temperatures in the mid 40s.
This is Saturday morning according to the Euro.  No other way of getting around it, it's record breaking cold with lows in the mid 30s.  HOWEVER, remember the three things I'll be watching to see if we really drop to these levels.
The GFS is on the same page too Saturday morning, mid 30s.  Just unreal!!!!
And just for fun I'll show you the GFS snow accumulation.  It has been showing this for quite awhile, but I'm still not buying it.  I would not doubt that someone reports a sleet pellet or snowflake though.  Another WOW!!!!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wow, Tulsa sure is lucky! Wish I was there...

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