A potentially historic cold air mass is on its way to Arkansas and I still have no changes to what I have been telling you since last weekend. I'll show you new and very interesting model data below including "Futurecast". The overnight run Thursday shows highs NOT getting out of the 40s in central Arkansas Friday. Most of the other data has our temperatures in the 50s so we'll see how it performs. Another big story will be the strong, cold winds causing wind chill readings to drop into the 20s and 30s across the state. Maybe even upper teens for northwest Arkansas. Also, listed below will be all the potential records we could break.
This upper level low will likely park itself over Arkansas and Missouri dropping our temperatures to record levels. The slow movement will keep the cool around through most of the weekend, and yes, snow will be possible across northwest Arkansas. There's even some data saying flakes could be seen further south. Unbelievable to think kids will be out for summer break in the SAME month snow falls in the state.
Looking past this weekend, temperatures will warm up, BUT there are signs more cool air could surge south, but probably not as cold as what we're going to see.
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| "Futurecast" shows temperatures well into the low to mid 40s Friday morning. Wind chill readings will be in the 30s. BUNDLE UP!!! |
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| Look at 3PM Friday. This is suppose to be the warmest time of the day. Most of the metro is in 40s still!!!! Hot Springs and Malvern could reach 50. Other data suggest low to mid 50s |
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| This would be historic as well. "Futurecast" shows readings in the mid and upper 30s Saturday morning. This would be the coldest ever for the month of May. |
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| "Futurecast" shows another historic event.... SNOW. If flakes fall, it would be the latest ever in recorded state weather history. |
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| The overnight run of the GFS even shows flakes could fly further south Saturday morning as the low sits and spins. While the chance of this happening is low, it can't be completely ruled out. However, according to the GFS, it's far northwest Arkansas which has the best chance for some snow/sleet. |
The following is from the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock
FORECAST/RECORD LOW STATION MAY 3RD MAY 4TH MAY 5TH ------------------------------------------------------------------------- LITTLE ROCK 44/41 1929 39/40 IN 1971 44/43 IN 1945 JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB 44/41 2004 39/40 IN 1976 43/43 IN 2005 NORTH LITTLE ROCK 44/43 2005 39/46 IN 1976 43/46 IN 1979 RUSSELLVILLE 41/36 1967 38/35 IN 1954 42/37 IN 1945 MOUNT IDA 39/32 1929 38/31 IN 1954 42/32 IN 1945 HARRISON 37/31 1911 33/30 IN 1907 39/33 IN 1917 BATESVILLE AIRPORT 44/37 2005 38/39 IN 2011 40/38 IN 1944 PINE BLUFF 45/41 1918 40/41 IN 1954 45/42 IN 1976 MONTICELLO 46/41 1960 42/40 IN 1971 46/38 IN 1957 HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT 42/41 2005 39/40 IN 1976 44/41 IN 2005 STUTTGART AIRPORT 46/43 2005 38/45 IN 1945 42/44 IN 1945 ARKADELPHIA 44/39 2005 40/38 IN 1976 45/39 IN 1945 BRINKLEY 46/32 1909 39/37 IN 1954 42/38 IN 1945 BOONEVILLE 38/35 2005 37/33 IN 1954 42/37 IN 1945 CAMDEN 44/38 1929 41/38 IN 1954 45/39 IN 1925 CALICO ROCK 42/30 1976 37/30 IN 1976 38/32 IN 1976 CONWAY 44/38 1918 38/36 IN 1954 42/41 IN 1957 GILBERT 38/30 2005 35/29 IN 1997 39/33 IN 1945 HOT SPRINGS NATIONAL PARK 42/34 1909 38/36 IN 1954 44/39 IN 1907 HARDY 42/36 2005 36/36 IN 2005 40/37 IN 1917 MENA 36/36 2011 38/35 IN 1954 44/38 IN 1945 SEARCY 45/37 1929 38/36 IN 1976 40/40 IN 1954 MOUNTAIN HOME 1NNW 40/35 2005 35/30 IN 1954 38/34 IN 1917 MALVERN 45/35 1903 40/35 IN 1976 45/40 IN 1954 MARSHALL 38/33 2005 35/31 IN 1954 39/35 IN 1954 SHERIDAN 45/40 1960 40/34 IN 1954 45/38 IN 1954 STAR CITY/CANE CREEK 46/41 1967 40/37 IN 1976 45/45 IN 2011 NEWPORT 46/41 1976 38/37 IN 1954 41/40 IN 1954 CLARKSVILLE 39/35 1976 37/33 IN 1954 40/35 IN 1954 AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF TYING OR EXCEEDING ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. STATIONS THAT COULD COME CLOSE ARE LISTED BELOW. STATION MAY ALL-TIME RECORD LOW ------------------------------------------------------ LITTLE ROCK 39 MAY 1ST 1903 JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB 39 MAY 7TH 1992 NORTH LITTLE ROCK 40 MAY 2ND 1994...MAY 2ND 1978 BATESVILLE AIRPORT 36 MAY 7TH 1944 PINE BLUFF 36 MAY 2ND 1909 HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT 39 MAY 13TH 1997 STUTTGART AIRPORT 41 MAY 1ST 2005 MENA 31 MAY 1ST 1903 STAR CITY/CANE CREEK 37 MAY 4TH 1976 CLARKSVILLE 33 MAY 4TH 1954
What about snowfall? Thanks to Brian Smith at the NWS for providing the following information.
The latest accumulating snow was .2'' in Corning, AR set on April 24th, 1910
The latest flakes seen in Arkansas was in Fayetteville, Gravette, and Harrion on April 30th, 1903
The last accumulating snow in Little Rock was .8'' on March 30th, 1987
The last snow was seen in Little Rock was April 19th, 1983.
Top 10 coldest May temperatures in Little Rock
- May 1, 1903 39 degrees
- May 4, 1971 40 degrees
- May 2, 1963 40 degrees
- May 12, 1960 40 degrees
- May 2, 1909 40 degrees
- May 2, 1994 41 degrees
- May 9, 1976 41 degrees
- May 1, 1963 41 degrees
- May 4, 1954 41 degrees
- May 3, 1929 41 degrees
- May 2, 1994 52 degrees
- May2, 2011 53 degrees
- May 4, 1935 53 degrees
- May 4 1907 53 degrees
- May 21, 1892 53 degrees
- May 1, 1994 56 degrees
- May 28, 1992 56 degrees
- May 5, 1935 56 degrees
- May 10, 1924 56 degrees
- May 3, 2002 57 degrees
Let's put this into perspective. That record is May 1, 1903!!!!!!
- The President of the United States was Theodore Roosevelt
- Pepsi company formed
- Niagera Falls runs out of water because of a drought
- Wright Brothers make 1st flight at Kittyhawk
- Loaf of bread was 4 cents
- Milk was 2 cents a gallon
- A stamp was 2 cents
- The average cost of a home was 4,000 dollars
1 comment:
Great post as usual, Todd.
I think it's always funny to see anyone and their dog come out and say "so much for global warming" when events like this happen. I don't personally think it disproves anything.
I'm still doing a lot of research on the climate and how weather patterns work, but your blog is a great resource for the Arkansas weather geek!
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