Sunday, August 04, 2013

ArkanSauna Is Back... And So Am I.

7:20 AM Monday Update... I have no changes to what I posted below.  The ridge of high pressure currently located west of the state should edge a bit to the east.  This will force the storm track away from us by the middle of the week.  This will open the window to a hot and extremely humid period.  I can see a situation where heat index readings push 105-110 degrees.  Read below for more details.  The summer contest numbers are updated.


Back to blogging as vacation is OVER.  While I had fun at the beach, I love Arkansas weather just as much.  Seriously, I'm not kidding.  I guess that's why they call me the "weather geek."

This summer hasn't been bad at all.  Only 2,  100 degree + days so far with less than a month of meteorological summer to go.  This will likely go down as the coolest and wettest summer since 2009.  

I am concerned with a three day stretch of hot and VERY humid conditions Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  While temperatures will not be extreme, there's going to be a ton of moisture in the air.  This will help elevate the heat index into the triple digit category.  I would not be surprised to see heat index temperatures range from 105 to 110 degrees.  A heat advisory may be required for some portions of the Channel 7 viewing area.

This burst of heat shouldn't last long.  I don't expect a huge cool down, but the temperatures will get knocked down a few degrees late in the week with some rain chances.  In the 8-14 day time period, there could be a bigger chance for below average temperatures.  Before you know it, football and fall will be here.  I CAN'T WAIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is doppler radar rainfall estimates over the past 7 days.  Most of the state has seen some rain.  Very little across the south, but much higher amounts north.   The saturated ground across the north could hold temperatures down a little, but the presence of high moisture levels will take the heat index into the dangerous category.  The south will likely get in on this as well.
While I expect high heat index values Tuesday through Thursday, I wanted to show you how widespread the heat will be Wednesday.  The purple area which encompasses all of Arkansas except the far north indicates heat index valued around 110 degrees.
For reference this week, here's a heat index chart from the NWS.  We should easily make it into the "Danger" category.
The NOAA 8-14 day outlook looks great.  There's a good chance for below average temperatures across much of the central and eastern United States.

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