Friday, October 11, 2013

The Read Deal... OCTO-BRRRRRRR

We're very confident about the turn to much cooler air starting next Tuesday and beyond, but when I saw the morning run of the European model, it sent chills up and down my spine.  While it's still in the long range, I want to show you one of the possibilities in about a week.

IF this pattern evolved just 1.5 months later, we would be talking wintry weather.  The set up is chilly.  There's another shot of cool Canadian high pressure arriving from the north with moisture overrunning the cooler air at the surface with a southwesterly flow aloft.  Assuming the Euro is correct, it will not be able to catch onto how chilly it could get this far out.  Let me explain.  With a northeast wind at the surface, clouds, and rain, I can envision a day with highs in the 40s up north and 50s elsewhere with a gloomy rain settling into the state.  I would also not be surprised to see snow in the panhandle of Oklahoma and Texas.  AGAIN, THAT'S A BIG "IF" AND IT ASSUMES THE SUPERIOR EUROPEAN LONG RANGE IS CORRECT.

This is a storm system we'll have to watch closely due to the tens of thousands expected in downtown Little Rock for the Race For the Cure.

This is the surface map on Saturday, Oct. 19th.  That's cold high pressure in the black closed line in eastern CO and it's labeled "1028".  The clockwise flow around it is bringing in NE winds.  You can see that with the faint grey arrows.  The green blobs show where rain has accumulated during the prior 6 hours.  This is very, very chilly.  If this verifies, you're likely to see highs only in the 50s with cold rain showers.
Here are surface temperatures at 7PM Saturday October 19th.  That line running through SW to NE Arkansas is the 50 degree isotherm.  This means everything north of that line is in the 40s and south of it just above 50. BRRRRRR
The NOAA 6-10 day outlook shows a high likelihood of below average temperatures during that time period
And above average rainfall as well.

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