Saturday, October 12, 2013

Race For The Cure Forecast. Rain Or Shine?

I have been back home in Little Rock since 2005 and it has NEVER rained on the Race For The Cure.  It's just a fun event to cover with so much energy in the crowd.  Our block party at 4th and Main is a ton of fun and I end up without a voice usually afterwards.  Not good considering my voice the past couple days.  The good news is that it's getting better now.

The two main long range models I look at have two different ideas.  The American GFS keeps it dry and very cool while the European is wet and cool.  You know how much I love the European model in the long range vs. the GFS, but I'm going to side at the time with the drier GFS.  I'll explain below.

To understand the forecast we must look way up into the atmosphere at a level called 500 mb.  Do you see the trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes?  Those black lines making a large "U" shape up there.  That's a large storm system and we're on the back side of it.  A northwesterly flow aloft around the counterclockwise circulation of that big low keeps it dry and cool here.
The Euro has that trough too but look at the placement of it.  It's over the southern plains.  If you draw a line threw the axis of that trough, it's to the west of the state and this by itself would keep at least some chance for rain in the forecast.  Look at that big area of yellow over KS and OK.  That's energy aloft which would tend to enhance rain chances.  Do I buy this?  I always speak highly of the Euro and it's superiority over the American GFS model.  However, the Euro at times hangs energy too far to the west and is not quick enough moving it to the east.  As long as the Euro does show this potential, it must be considered.  What will likely happen is some sort of compromise, but I think we're looking a better chance for a dry and cool start to the race.
But what about temperatures?  This is the GFS at 7AM Saturday morning and it shows readings in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.  If it's sunny, I would expect temperatures to quickly recover into the 60s by the end of the race.  
In summary, the Euro can't be discounted completely, but I tend to favor the GFS in this situation.  I'll keep you updated.


Anonymous said...

No highs in the 50's or low 60's? :(

Anonymous said...

This is the 2nd time we've been offered the prospect of our first "true" cold front of the season and have been disappointed. When are we gonna get highs in the 50's or even 40's? This warm weather, then cool front pattern only to warm back up is getting redundant.

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