Friday, December 27, 2013

Flakes Could Fly



Before I get into this brief post, I just wanted to thank you.  We set a record here on the blog this month and it isn't even over yet!  According to the numbers, we had the most "hits" EVER in a single month.  That's really saying something since this blog is now 7 years old.  I can't release the numbers, but it's well into the hundreds of thousands.  WOW!  I love it you come here for your information. 

We have another shot of arctic arriving late this weekend and there could be a little moisture squeezed out.  This is NOT an ideal set up for anything significant.  The 00Z run of the North American Model went a little crazy with accumulations, but I'm not buying into that at this time since it seems to be well overdone compared to all the data out there.  Again, this is not an ideal set up since moisture is limited.  A northwesterly wind flow in the upper levels is not conducive to any major precipitation amounts in the winter.

With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes fly Sunday night into Monday morning with reports of a light dusting in some locations.  Here are the maps from weatherbell.com

The European model shows all amounts well under 1'' for portions of central and southeast Arkansas.
The GFS has shown some accumulations on previous model runs, but the overnight one was DRY!
The NAM has been the most aggressive.  The 00Z run went a little crazy and overboard, but the 06Z run showed much less, but still more than most of the other models.  Notice the target area is southern Arkansas just like the Euro.  According to this, a dusting to 2'' could fall.  HOWEVER, I DON'T SEE THIS AS CREDIBLE AT THIS TIME. I'll let you know if that changes.
The Canadian model shows a general, large area of 1'' or less across a large section of the state.
In summary, like I said, this is NOT the way we get significant snows here in Arkansas.  Moisture is lacking so I'm not putting much stock in the models that show snow accumulations.  At this point, I think it's safe to say we'll have reports of flurries and some light snow.  There could even be a dusting and the favored areas would be central and southeast Arkansas.  IF ANYTHING CHANGES, I'LL LET YOU KNOW!

Thanks again for coming here to the blog!

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