Thursday, December 05, 2013

Ice Storm On The Way

There's no escaping it.  The only thing we can hope for is more sleet than freezing rain, however, it looks like a lot of this will be freezing rain.  More on that in just a bit.

I want to once again address my new "SCHOOL:CON INDEX".  I have received a ton of positive feedback.  99% of you like it, but there are a few who don't.  This new index was formed to address the question I get all time, "will we have school?"  I don't close schools and it's surely not my decision.  The index is based on meteorology and my personal experience.  I analyze the data and form an "opinion" based on that.  I also use history.  I grew up here and I know what kind of weather conditions will likely close schools.  So there you have it.  In the future, I'll only use it when my confidence level in a particular weather situation is high enough.

Once again, I have no changes.  The worry all along was that the models were not strong enough with the arctic air and it would arrive faster.  That's happening.  I expect a changeover across northern Arkansas to ice this morning into the afternoon.  Central areas after midnight and south Arkansas later Friday morning.

Round #2 arrives late Saturday and Sunday.  This will likely be in the form of freezing rain and will affect the southeast half of the state with freezing rain and sleet.  This will not be as heavy as the Friday round, but it will be significant.


I'm getting to the point where I can no longer ignore the model data.  My jaw drops every time I see the new data.  The Euro indicates a new push of arctic air will send temperatures to around 0 in LITTLE ROCK Tuesday morning.  If we hit 0, it will be the first time since December 23, 1989.  I'm not completely sold on a low that cold, but when models constantly show this, it has SOME credibility.

The GFS sends wind chills across the northwest half of the state to 0 to -20 Tuesday morning.  This could be pipe busting cold.  Also, protect people and pets.  THINK ABOUT YOUR NEIGHBOR!

I DON'T MAKE THE DECISIONS.  This is all in my opinion.  I think there's a very high chance there will be cancellations in the red area.
Here's the freezing line starting at 6PM Thursday.  I expect most of the metro to be at or below freezing by 6AM Friday.  Once the temperature hits 32, rain will change to freezing rain and hopefully some sleet too.
The overnight run of "Futurecast" shows the corridor where the heaviest icing will occur.  I think amounts across central AR could be a bit higher than this.  STAY TUNED.
Here are the warnings as of Thursday AM.  An ice storm warning in purple, pink is a winter storm warning, and violet is a freezing rain advisory.  This is our official forecast at Channel 7 this morning as far as amounts are concerned.  THIS CAN STILL CHANGE.
With lows in the single digits possible Tuesday morning, the GFS map from shows wind chill readings around 0 to -20 across the NW half of the state.


Anonymous said...

This is the nicest weather I've felt in a long time! 25 degrees with a wind chill of 15 here in Jonesboro. Please tell us we'll have future arctic jailbreaks like this?

Anonymous said...

Come on Todd, give us a warmer forecast! With that said, I think you do a great job! Thanks!

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