Wednesday, December 04, 2013

Icemegeddon and Snowmegeddon 2013

1:30 PM Wednesday Update... I think you'll get a lot out of this video.  I go in-depth with all the rounds of precipitation we're expecting and I talk about the brutally cold weather possible next week.  Thanks again for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog

Where in the world do I start?  Well, I think it's very obvious people are breaking out the mayo and the mustard and playing "catch-up" to the cold air.  History is sometimes more important than modeling.  Both go hand and hand really.  We must also remember, nothing has even happened yet.  I could still be completely wrong, but I feel good about the ideas I put out there on the blog over the past few days.  I really do not have any changes to what I have been saying.  The worst of this will be north and west of Little Rock, but that does NOT mean Little Rock and the metro escape.  I still think there's the possibility for significant icing.  Our best case scenario is sleet, but we really need to be prepared for freezing rain collecting on trees and power lines.

While snow and ice will be the big story, the second big story will be the temperatures.  We are looking at several days where temperatures do NOT get above freezing for many portions of the state.  Make preparations now for PIPES, PETS, AND PEOPLE.  There's even some data out there that suggests Little Rock will have single digit lows next week.  IF that happens, it will be the 1st time since February 1996.  It will be close.

Here's what I think will unfold.  The initial round of precipitation will be all rain Thursday, except northwest Arkansas.  Remember, I have been saying the Ozarks will hold up the subfreezing air for awhile.

Thursday night into Friday morning, ANOTHER wave of moisture will move into the state.  At the same time, the cold air at the surface will be on the move sending the subfreezing air southward.  By sunrise Friday, I expect everyone along and north of a line from Mena, to near Little Rock, to Memphis to be at or below freezing.  Temperatures will continue to fall all day Friday into the 20s.  The ice will expand into southern Arkansas before ending.  While northern Arkansas should transition to snow early in the day.

Another round of wintry weather will arrive late Saturday into Sunday.  This will be lighter, but it will be significant and cause more issues.

Below are all my maps from  Lots of good stuff there.

GFS.  Remember, these maps show you total precip during the previous 6 hours. Green is rain, purple is freezing rain, orange is sleet, and blue is snow.  This is late Thursday at 6PM.  The ice is over northwest AR as expected with a cold rain everywhere else.
By Friday morning at 6AM, the ice is entering central Arkansas as a 2nd wave of moisture moves into our state.  Still a cold rain south.
By late Friday, we have most of the state with ice and snow.  I expect this to decrease early to mid afternoon Friday.
Here's my Friday morning winter weather impact area for Thursday into Friday.
Now onto the temperatures next week and this is unreal.  REMEMBER, THIS IS JUST A MODEL AND NOT A FORECAST....YET!!!!!!!  The Euro shows most of NW Arkansas below zero.  Single digits elsewhere.  UNREAL.  REMEMBER, THIS IS JUST A MODEL
LET'S GO BACK FOR JUST A SECOND BECAUSE I PUT THESE IN THE WRONG ORDER. LOL!  Saturday morning wind chill values.  0 to -10 over the snow and ice up north.  OUCH!
Now back to next Tuesday morning, wind chill values according to the GFS wayyyyyyyy below zero north half.  REMEMBER, JUST A MODEL, NOT A FORECAST.... YET

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The general attitude up North is that nothing is going to happen. Ground temp too warm. Therefore, no problem. Alot of hype about nothing.

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