Monday, December 30, 2013

Will We Have To Use The SCHOOL:CON Index Again?


2PM Monday Update... There's a ton of chatter out there about the extreme solution of the morning European.  I'm not buying into it at this point.  We must remember, these are just computers trying to predict a very complex atmosphere.  Let's talk about its track record. Yes, it does better than the American GFS, BUT it has also predicted some EXTREME cold this past late fall and winter that NEVER verified.  I remember its prediction of well below zero temperatures following the December 5th/6th ice event.  It also predicted extreme cold around Christmas time.  How did those forecasts work out?

With that said, it is really amazing when you look at how extreme it is.  The GFS is cold, but nothing like the Euro.  It basically takes the polar vortex and sends it into the northern United States and blasts us with extremely cold, record breaking temperatures.  Again, I'm not buying into that solution at this time. HOWEVER, SINCE THIS GUIDANCE DOES INDEED SHOW IT, I'M NOT GOING TO IGNORE IT COMPLETELY.  Sound wishy washy?  Maybe.  Anyone who tells you they KNOW what will happen next week isn't telling you the truth.  I have seen people get burned time and time again with statements they can't get out of.  I'll go on the record now saying it's going to be a cold week ahead (next week), but how extreme is still up for debate.  Thanks for listening to my little rant.  With all that said, I'll show you what it has next week.

Next Tuesday AM.... Unlikely to verify, but it shows well below zero temps over eastern AR into MS with single digits and teens elsewhere with plenty of snow on the ground.
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Our weather pattern is definitely getting active again with two opportunities for frozen precipitation.  You probably get tired of me saying this, but long range forecasting can become quite tricky so keep checking back.

It seems like the operational long range models keep pointing towards snow and cold in the long range only for it to rarely verify so we must keep that in mind.  

It appears we're going to have a temperature roller coaster over the next week, but the cold air will ultimately win.  After today's (Monday) cold, we'll warm up Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then another very strong cold front will sweep across the state introducing more very cold air.  There might be a little rain with this and that could change to some frozen precipitation before ending Thursday.  Then temperatures will moderate once again going into the weekend, then yet another system arrives!   The models paint a stronger push of cold air and more moisture.  I'll caution you once again.  I have seen this in the long range before only to have the models back off of it.  With that said, the kiddos will be eagerly watching and hoping to extend their Christmas break.  I know I did way back when! LOL!

Below are maps from the Euro on weatherbell.com.  It should be noted the Global Forecasting System (GFS) is not as enthusiastic as the Euro when it comes to winter precipitation.  This is to be expected.  Rarely is there agreement in the long range.

The Euro shows a little snow for northern AR as the precipitation comes to an end on Thursday.
The Euro shows another, but more significant swath of snow across central and northern Arkansas next Sunday.  Once again, long range forecasting is very tricky and I GUARANTEE YOU THIS WILL NOT VERIFY EXACTLY.  IT COULD BE MORE OR LESS.  STAY TUNED!

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