Sunday, January 05, 2014

BRUTAL Cold and Northern Snow

It's here.  I think it might be the most talked about cold front in years! LOL.  I'm writing this post Sunday morning around 7AM and it's starting to enter central Arkansas.  High temperatures are being set early, then they go into free fall.  Northern Arkansas is the target area for the snow while the BIG weather story statewide will be the extremely cold temperatures and outrageously cold wind chill values.

Sorry for the kids that go back to school Monday.  I know you wanted snow to extend your vacation, but it looks like this will target northern Arkansas.  However, it will be interesting to see if any schools close because of the wind chill advisory and warning in effect.  I have NEVER seen them do that before in Arkansas so it's something to watch.  Not my decision.

Again, cold will be king through Wednesday.  I'm still not ruling out some light ice and snow Wednesday, especially across the northern portions of the state.  I'm not going to flip flop based on each run of a model run a gazillion times a day.  It only makes sense with dry arctic air in place and precip. overrunning it for some wintry weather to occur.  To what extent is debatable.  While I don't think this will be a big deal, let's just watch it.

What about Monday and the possibility for snow I mentioned a few days ago.  I still think northern and northeastern Arkansas could see a few snow showers.  The models will not be able to pick up on these small disturbances well.  The extreme arctic air could squeeze out a few flakes out of these moisture starved disturbances.  Nothing big, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports come in.  I'll have a map below explaining.

I'm really shocked when I see some of the data.  Dew point values will be around -5 to -15 degrees Monday into Tuesday morning according to the GFS.  That's BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR!!!!!!!  If winds were to completely diminish and no clouds were moving overhead, air temperatures could drop well into the single digits.

Here's what we will watch in terms of actual air temperatures.  Little Rock has NOT had an official single digit low since February of 1996.  I'm convinced we must have three things to get into that territory: NO wind, NO clouds, but some snow on the ground.  I don't think we'll have all 3.  I'm NOT saying it's impossible, just difficult.

Here's something else fascinating to watch.  Little Rock has NOT had a high temperature in the teens since December of 1989!  The GFS is forecasting 18 degrees now for Monday as a high in Little Rock.  It's possible!  I think 20-22 will be a good bet.  Again, it's something to keep an eye on.

Our exclusive model, FUTURECAST, indicates wind chill values at 7 AM around 0 for much of central Arkansas.  I think it will be lower with some of the higher wind gusts!
By 3PM, it gets better, BUT NOT MUCH!  Still bone chilling cold
Once again Tuesday morning, wind chill values are around 0
A WIND CHILL WARNING is in effect Sunday night into Monday morning for north central Arkansas.  That's right, wind chills could drop to -10 to -20!  OUCH!  Across the the remainder of central and northern Arkansas... -5 to -15 with a WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
FUTURECAST, snow amounts indicate it's the northern 1/3 of the state with accumulations Sunday.
Monday snow showers?  Let me explain.  There will be an intense vortex spinning over the Great Lakes.  Along the back side of it, a strong northerly flow will send small disturbances southward in a counterclockwise manner.  This is the NAM and you see clouds rotating around it into northern Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening.  Underneath those clouds, the arctic air could squeeze out a few snow showers.  You see the NAM showing one area of that over Benton county in northwest Arkansas.  This will not be anything big, but I think we'll get a few reports from northern and northeastern Arkansas.

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