8:25 AM Tuesday Update... I want to clarify something pertaining to the video. Yes, the models are all over the place from run to run and that's why I have lower than average confidence on a forecast for next week. With that said, they have all come back warmer pushing the boundary further north Sunday. My problem, why should I believe it when just yesterday it was forecasting a winter storm? Yes, we are closer to the event and there is SOME agreement, but what happens if they start trending colder again? I do think that's a possibility since we're dealing with something several days away. Until this system gets into the United States and gets sampled by the upper air network, I have questions as to how this will unfold. Hope that makes sense. Watch the video below for more.
7:15 AM Tuesday Update... As I said yesterday, this is a very low confidence forecast starting next weekend into the following week. The GFS is having severe problems and this video demonstrates the challenges forecasting what may happen next week. What once looked like a winter weather threat, now looks like thunderstorms. Do I believe that right now? NO. Check out the video
Say that 10 times fast! Let's first start off by saying I have absolutely NO trust in the operational runs of the GFS and European models when it comes to next weekend and beyond. Here's why. Just yesterday, both indicated a dry and cold Sunday, but now have flipped to cold and wet. The GFS even shows wintry precipitation. While both have flipped to the wetter forecast, they both differ in the strength and position of the low.
The next run of the models could easily delay or speed up the impending system or even dampen it out and take away some of the moisture. So at this time, the extended is very much a "low confidence" forecast (Sunday and beyond). We must watch it for any of the possibilities I listed above, especially since thousands will be here running the marathon.
These maps are from weatherbell.com
|This is the morning run of the GFS just yesterday. It does show the system developing to the west, but leaves us dry Sunday morning.|