Monday, March 31, 2014

Thursday Trouble

So far in 2014 there have been no tornadoes in Arkansas.  Sadly, that streak may come to an end later this week.  

This truly looks like a typical spring severe weather maker.  I really have no changes to my previous thinking.  While there will be the chance for some severe weather Wednesday, but the worst of this will arrive Thursday with plenty of instability in place.  The exact timing of this system is still in question, but I suspect the highest chance for thunderstorm activity to arrive during the afternoon and evening hours.  We'll continue to hone in on that as we get closer.  All modes of severe weather will be possible: Hail, wind, and tornadoes.  Please sit down with your family and make sure you all know where to go just in case.

There will also be the threat for heavy rain and localized flooding as some places could end up with 2-4'' of rainfall.

By 1PM Thursday, the atmosphere is highly unstable especially across eastern OK where the "dryline" is situated.  This is showing you surface based instabilitiy  (CAPE).   The higher the number, the more unstabile it is.  We will watch for storm development there, but we will also have to watch for storm development further east in the warm sector into Arkansas.
It's going to be quite warm by the afternoon with readings well into the 70s.
Dewpoints according to the EURO are very, very high and in the upper 60s to near 70.  Moisture won't be an issue for thunderstorm development.
The SPC has a slight risk for Wednesday, but mainly for areas west.  Some of it may come into Arkansas.  The worst arrives Thursday.  I expect the area Thursday to be a "Slight" risk by the outlook issued Tuesday.  There's a chance it will get upgraded even further.

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