Sunday, March 16, 2014

Winter Will Not Let Go


10:15AM Update....  Here's a video update going over the snow chances for northern Arkansas today.  Also, a little sneak peak into spring break later this month.





It's scary how good the HRRR model is right now.  This is a hi resolution and very short term model.  It's performance lately has been incredible.

The lull in the rain is here this morning with rain continuing across the north.  This was completely expected.  Showers will move back in late this morning and into the afternoon with strong northerly winds and falling temperatures.  Southern Arkansas, you may NOT have much more rainfall out of this system.  Some, but not much.

As the cold air comes in, the moisture wrapping around will change to snow mainly over the north where several counties are now under a winter weather advisory.  1-2'' with isolated higher amounts can be expected, especially in the higher elevations.  This won't be a huge deal, but another visit from ol man winter!

Since the HRRR is doing such a great job handling this system, I'll show it to you below.  This is simulated radar with the greens indicating rain, purple is ice, and blue is snow.  These maps are from weatherbell.com

This map is from early Sunday morning.  The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for portions of NW and north central AR.  See maps below for reason why.

By noon, the "dry slot" is very easy to see.  It extends from southern AR into middle TN.  Moisture is wrapping around it from the north on strong northerly winds.  The HRRR even shows some possible storm activity in central AR.  That's not going to be a big deal.  Notice the rain has changed to snow across the NW.  I'm sure we'll get reports of heavy, wet snowflakes up there.
By 4PM, there are a few showers still across central and southern Arkansas.  The snow is picking up where the winter weather advisory is in effect.

BY 7PM, the snow continues up north with the shower activity decreasing elsewhere.  Shortly after 7, the all of the precipitation will be winding down.

In summary, everything seems to be on track.   The expected lull is here this morning and I expect showers to pick up once again later today.  Will we see snowflakes in central Arkansas?  I'm not going to rule that out tonight, but the chance isn't all that great.  If we do get flakes, no accumulation is expected at this time.  I'll keep you updated and thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog... we are your ticket to big weather events!

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well Mr Todd , it is 3:00 am in Jacksonville and is snowing heavy, where was this in your forecast? lol

Anonymous said...

I'm dreaming of a white April Fool's day!

Anonymous said...

I'm loving this pattern. Let the cold weather roll!